The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

pavel1995 said:

Shtinamin_ said:

I like your analysis.

Personally, I think Game Freak has had access to successor dev kits since ~July 2023. This allows Game Freak to come up with ideas for gen 10 to release 4 years after gen 9 release. I think The Pokémon Company will follow through with what their COO said, in which they will take some time (probably 1 more year) to polish their main games. That allows 1 year to imagine a game, and 3 years to develop it (2026 release). In the meantime they will release a Legends game, and outsource a remake for 2024 & 2025. Gen 10 will release on the successor, but the Legends and remake will be on the Switch. 

I agree with 142m by Mar 31 2024. Though I can expect to see ~11m by Mar 31 2025, and will put a price cut on the Switch. I personally believe it can sell 162.36m.

The thing I have a problem believing is that gamefreak will really make their games quality improve or even wait three years. We've told gamefreak we will buy 25 million copies of pokemon scarlet and violet the broken buggy unfinished game. I don't think they'll take longer, but that's me trying not to give a bad company like gamefreak a pass until they improve the quality of their game.  

Gamefreak does need some reprimands from their disappointments of games, but I have seen some good games that released this console cycle.

Gamefreak launches a new mainline generation games at the 3 year mark. (Gen 1-2 3 years, Gen 2-3 3 years, Gen 5-6 2 years, Gen 6-7 3 years, Gen 7-8 3 years, Gen 8-9 3 years).
Gamefreak COO announced last year that they have considered talking about taking things slower to provide quality games. And with the release of a 2025 Legends game yesterday, it is a sign of taking things slower. Since the Switch they have released a game/DLC every year. (2016 Sun/Moon, 2017 US/UM, 2018 LGP/E, 2019 Sw/Sh, 2020 IoA & CT, 2021 BDSP, 2022 LA & S/V, 2023 TM & ID, 2024 Gap Year, 2025 LZ-A). 2025 is the year that gen 10 should come out. Now this doesn't mean that LZ-A won't be the only game in 2025 (like 2023), but from what we see 2024 has more grounds to be a "time out".

I think their Gen 10 will be in 2026 on the successor.