The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

pavel1995 said:

I think that the switch will overtake the ps2 in sales.

142m END of FY2023 Selling 16m
152m END of FY2024 Selling 10.5m+
158m END of FY2025 Selling 5.25m+
160m+ End of life

I think that the delay of switch 2 and the last sole holiday ensure that the switch will sell well. I imagine a 33% drop in sales from 16 million to 10.5 million is reasonable not to mention if there is a BIG pokemon game this year like a legends or let's go it would help boost sales. The let's go and legends games have both sold 15 million units so I'm expecting a 33% drop if that were the case isn't unreasonable.

In FY of 2025 while the normal school of thought is that a system will lose about 66% of sales when a new console releases I think the drop will be 50% because of pokemon. I think that pokemon gen 10 will be switch 1 exclusive as pokemon typically don't put out new entries the first year a console comes out, so I do think that the switch will have another 25m seller. I do believe that a game that sells 25 million units probaby can bump sales as we have seen pokemon increase sales of switch hardware every time a new game comes out.

At that point all it will take is continued support of the switch with continued production and the swtich should pass the 160 mark.

All I really need for this prediction is that the pokemon company continuing to release games on switch and for fairly reasonable drops to happen.

I like your analysis.

Personally, I think Game Freak has had access to successor dev kits since ~July 2023. This allows Game Freak to come up with ideas for gen 10 to release 4 years after gen 9 release. I think The Pokémon Company will follow through with what their COO said, in which they will take some time (probably 1 more year) to polish their main games. That allows 1 year to imagine a game, and 3 years to develop it (2026 release). In the meantime they will release a Legends game, and outsource a remake for 2024 & 2025. Gen 10 will release on the successor, but the Legends and remake will be on the Switch. 

I agree with 142m by Mar 31 2024. Though I can expect to see ~11m by Mar 31 2025, and will put a price cut on the Switch. I personally believe it can sell 162.36m.