I trust Nintendo and they are coming for 160 million
Mario upcoming games will help A LOT

The ps2 is the most successful in terms of sales, switch is probably the most successful in terms of profitability, Both are true. Stop starting an argument for no reason. There is not a singular measurement for success.

While this thread is about sales he was just pointing out that despite not passing the ps2/ds in terms of sales that it is likely already more successful in terms of profitability. There is nothing wrong with pointing this out. 

I don't think Nintendo will let dry up Switch software in 2024, so shipments of 2m+ are doable in every quarter. This means the holiday quarter needs to be somewhere between 4-5m. It's not crazy high.

I don't agree with the prevalent assumptions that Nintendo won't offer better SKU options eventually or that Nintendo will kill off Switch sales in an attempt to get its successor off to a better start. The smooth transition period from the 3DS to Switch is something that Nintendo will want to replicate, because we can expect a significant price difference between Switch Lite and the Switch's successor, plus I fully expect Nintendo's software pricing to get raised by 10 bucks across the board. It's going to be a pretty normal gen to gen difference in pricing, so it makes sense to keep Switch going even after its successor has launched, and allow it to run its course like the 3DS was allowed to.

But Switch and 3DS are very different beasts. 3DS was around $150 when Switch launched at $300. The two main models of Switch are at $300 and $350 and it's likely next gen launches at around $350. So as of now there is no daylight between them. So you definitely can't compare it to the 3DS/Switch dynamic. If Nintendo wants Switch to keep selling more than just the Lite after next gen launch day then need $50+ price cuts to the two hybrid models, and I think original hybrid would probably start outselling OLED cuz if only $50 diff between last gen and next gen you may as well buy next gen, but $100 diff could pick up some people, especially parents buying them for kids who are just now aging into gaming.

If Nintendo doesn't do price cuts on Switch I see Switch finishing up maybe just under 150m cuz sales are gonna dry up when everyone is buying a ~$350 next gen system rather than a $300/$350 previous gen system. Sales would still trickle in from the Lite in 2025 but that would probably only be a million or so a year for a couple years. Think: 141m Mar '24, 143m Jun '24, 145m Sept '24, 148m 2024 (wouldn't expect much of a holiday for Switch with next gen launching in the Fall), 149m 2025, 150m 2026. Something like that.

But if Nintendo drops to say $170/$230/$280 a couple months before next gen starts, that'll give Switch a final boost as well as a decent holiday as people pick up 'the cheap Nintendo' who don't want to spend $350 or so on the new one. Plus Switch could keep selling somewhat decent in its post-life period so then there would definitely be potential for it to pass DS, maaaaybe even pass PS2. 160m would be a long shot even with an aggressive Switch strategy unless they did really well marketing Switch as a cheap alternative for parents to buy their kids. I mean ideally if they wanna do that they should get the Lite down under $150 to make it close to an impulse buy. Then the Lite takes over as a 3DS type cheap option for kids.

Also definitely don't think $70 will become the norm. I expect $70 for stuff like 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, MK, Smash, MP4 if its next gen, those sorts of really huge AAA 3D games that take like 4+ years to develop, but not anything else.

New Pokemon games for Switch
8/8/23

+160 million on lock me fears

Next gen is likely going to be $400. For one, we had accelerated global inflation recently, and two, the hybrid concept is a proven one now, so Nintendo knows they can charge that much if the launch year lineup is strong. The same will hold true for most games; I don't see Nintendo leaving that much money on the table when other major software publishers charge $70 as well.

The original Switch SKU sees continuously less production, so it seems it's only a matter of time until Nintendo phases it out entirely. Following that, they can reduce the OLED's price to $300 in 2024 and there's your $100 price difference between current gen and next gen. Switch Lite can be $200 with a pack-in game.

The Switch family would have to experience a massive and unreasonable dropoff to cap it at 150m lifetime. Consider that the DS shipped ~5m units after September 2011, so after Nintendo already went all-in to kill it off in order to allow the 3DS to live. The difference in pricing between the DS and 3DS was negligible at that point - the 3DS was also almost 100% backwards compatible - and yet there were still 5m DS units shipped afterwards. This is before factoring in that Switch's late life software schedule will be undoubtedly more robust than the DS's.

Basically, even if Nintendo does it all wrong for Switch from 2024 onwards, it's virtually impossible to finish at 150m or below in lifetime sales for such a successful platform that Switch has been. The only realistic option to stay below 150m is to end production of the system altogether. We are essentially at the point now where we have to run worst case scenarios from all angles to have Switch finish below the DS in lifetime sales: No price cuts, no pack-in games, cut off first party support, third parties dropping support and immediately moving on to Switch's successor, cheap Switch successor with the best first year lineup in video game history.

We are certainly not at the point where even pessimistic scenarios secure 155m+, but the floor keeps rising slowly and steadily over time. Just look at your own post in this thread from 1.5 years ago where you were pondering a finish in the 140s. That's apparently not in the cards anymore. The 160m mark remains one that can go either way, but that's what makes a sales thread interesting and what allows this thread to keep going despite its original post getting wiped by a security leak last fall.

Switch 2 probably will be unveiled in Feb or March of next year so Switch sales will likely take a hit from that point onwards as a lot of people will opt to just wait for the new Switch. Or maybe an announcement in Feb or so and then a first look around April or May? It depends too on when exactly the launch is, a 2nd half 2024 launch can mean August or September, not just November or December. 

160 would be a nice to have, but it's not a must have. It's much more important for Nintendo that Switch 2 has a very strong start. So I could see them starting to choke Switch shipments on purpose to channel people to the Switch 2. It just depends on what their philosophy is, with 3DS/DS they choked out the life from the DS to push people to the 3DS. With 3DS/Switch they let the 3DS stick around a while but the 3DS also had a completely non compatible library with the Switch and a huge difference in pricing. With the PS4, certainly Sony could have sold quite a few more PS4s with a price cut, but not only did they not cut the price, they even restricted shipments of the PS4 in order to push people to the PS5, and largely it's been the correct move when you look at the PS5 quickly getting to 40 million LTD even without many exclusives (Nintendo will have to work harder than that because their systems aren't drive by 3rd party content).

These last few months of 2023 are basically the Switch's swan song in terms of being a big priority for Nintendo, once the calendar year turns to 2024, it's all about Switch 2. 

Half a year later I still mostly agree with this but after the really strong quarter it just had the 2023 and later numbers can be adjusted up a bit so it has a good chance of overtaking the DS but it's still unlikely to reach the PS2 and 160m I'd say though that's still completely possible.

At this point, I think 160m is in the bag. Nintendo just posted the best first quarter to a FY that they've ever had. They are not eager to replace the Switch.

Something that people forget is that Nintendo is extremely conservative on their business side. They are not going to kill off their most profitable console ever to gamble on the next one. Remember that even when they released the DS, they called it a "third leg", with GBA and their home console being the other 2 legs. They were only going to kill off the GBA when they knew the DS was successful. Nintendo likes a sure thing. They definitely are not eager to kill the Switch off. They aren't eager to release a Switch 2, and even when they do, they are going to milk every last drop of profit off of the Switch. People should go all the way to March 31, 2027 when they do their hardware sales projections, because Switch is going to ship at least 1m annually even that far off.

Dev kits for the Switch 2 are out in Europe too, which means a new system is coming, there's no real point in even having a big debate about that, they are moving on to a new system. 

Nintendo is not "killing" anything from their POV, they will want people who would have bought a Switch to just move over and buy a Switch 2 which if its backwards compatible (it will be) IS a Switch 1 also. For them there is no delineation that way, this stuff only matters to tiny number of people arguing about it on message boards (read: it doesn't really matter). 

Sony could sell more PS4s if they wanted to, they chose not to on purpose because they're effectively forcing people to buy a PS5 instead, which is a bigger win for them because that locks that consumer into their new software ecosystem for a further 5-7 years and means they can sell all their newer and future games to that person, not just a legacy library.