The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[RolStoppable]

Slownenberg said:

But Switch and 3DS are very different beasts. 3DS was around $150 when Switch launched at $300. The two main models of Switch are at $300 and $350 and it's likely next gen launches at around $350. So as of now there is no daylight between them. So you definitely can't compare it to the 3DS/Switch dynamic. If Nintendo wants Switch to keep selling more than just the Lite after next gen launch day then need $50+ price cuts to the two hybrid models, and I think original hybrid would probably start outselling OLED cuz if only $50 diff between last gen and next gen you may as well buy next gen, but $100 diff could pick up some people, especially parents buying them for kids who are just now aging into gaming.

If Nintendo doesn't do price cuts on Switch I see Switch finishing up maybe just under 150m cuz sales are gonna dry up when everyone is buying a ~$350 next gen system rather than a $300/$350 previous gen system. Sales would still trickle in from the Lite in 2025 but that would probably only be a million or so a year for a couple years. Think: 141m Mar '24, 143m Jun '24, 145m Sept '24, 148m 2024 (wouldn't expect much of a holiday for Switch with next gen launching in the Fall), 149m 2025, 150m 2026. Something like that.

But if Nintendo drops to say $170/$230/$280 a couple months before next gen starts, that'll give Switch a final boost as well as a decent holiday as people pick up 'the cheap Nintendo' who don't want to spend $350 or so on the new one. Plus Switch could keep selling somewhat decent in its post-life period so then there would definitely be potential for it to pass DS, maaaaybe even pass PS2. 160m would be a long shot even with an aggressive Switch strategy unless they did really well marketing Switch as a cheap alternative for parents to buy their kids. I mean ideally if they wanna do that they should get the Lite down under $150 to make it close to an impulse buy. Then the Lite takes over as a 3DS type cheap option for kids.

Also definitely don't think $70 will become the norm. I expect $70 for stuff like 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, MK, Smash, MP4 if its next gen, those sorts of really huge AAA 3D games that take like 4+ years to develop, but not anything else.

Next gen is likely going to be $400. For one, we had accelerated global inflation recently, and two, the hybrid concept is a proven one now, so Nintendo knows they can charge that much if the launch year lineup is strong. The same will hold true for most games; I don't see Nintendo leaving that much money on the table when other major software publishers charge $70 as well.

The original Switch SKU sees continuously less production, so it seems it's only a matter of time until Nintendo phases it out entirely. Following that, they can reduce the OLED's price to $300 in 2024 and there's your $100 price difference between current gen and next gen. Switch Lite can be $200 with a pack-in game.

The Switch family would have to experience a massive and unreasonable dropoff to cap it at 150m lifetime. Consider that the DS shipped ~5m units after September 2011, so after Nintendo already went all-in to kill it off in order to allow the 3DS to live. The difference in pricing between the DS and 3DS was negligible at that point - the 3DS was also almost 100% backwards compatible - and yet there were still 5m DS units shipped afterwards. This is before factoring in that Switch's late life software schedule will be undoubtedly more robust than the DS's.

Basically, even if Nintendo does it all wrong for Switch from 2024 onwards, it's virtually impossible to finish at 150m or below in lifetime sales for such a successful platform that Switch has been. The only realistic option to stay below 150m is to end production of the system altogether. We are essentially at the point now where we have to run worst case scenarios from all angles to have Switch finish below the DS in lifetime sales: No price cuts, no pack-in games, cut off first party support, third parties dropping support and immediately moving on to Switch's successor, cheap Switch successor with the best first year lineup in video game history.

We are certainly not at the point where even pessimistic scenarios secure 155m+, but the floor keeps rising slowly and steadily over time. Just look at your own post in this thread from 1.5 years ago where you were pondering a finish in the 140s. That's apparently not in the cards anymore. The 160m mark remains one that can go either way, but that's what makes a sales thread interesting and what allows this thread to keep going despite its original post getting wiped by a security leak last fall.