RolStoppable said:
I don't think Nintendo will let dry up Switch software in 2024, so shipments of 2m+ are doable in every quarter. This means the holiday quarter needs to be somewhere between 4-5m. It's not crazy high. I don't agree with the prevalent assumptions that Nintendo won't offer better SKU options eventually or that Nintendo will kill off Switch sales in an attempt to get its successor off to a better start. The smooth transition period from the 3DS to Switch is something that Nintendo will want to replicate, because we can expect a significant price difference between Switch Lite and the Switch's successor, plus I fully expect Nintendo's software pricing to get raised by 10 bucks across the board. It's going to be a pretty normal gen to gen difference in pricing, so it makes sense to keep Switch going even after its successor has launched, and allow it to run its course like the 3DS was allowed to. |
But Switch and 3DS are very different beasts. 3DS was around $150 when Switch launched at $300. The two main models of Switch are at $300 and $350 and it's likely next gen launches at around $350. So as of now there is no daylight between them. So you definitely can't compare it to the 3DS/Switch dynamic. If Nintendo wants Switch to keep selling more than just the Lite after next gen launch day then need $50+ price cuts to the two hybrid models, and I think original hybrid would probably start outselling OLED cuz if only $50 diff between last gen and next gen you may as well buy next gen, but $100 diff could pick up some people, especially parents buying them for kids who are just now aging into gaming.
If Nintendo doesn't do price cuts on Switch I see Switch finishing up maybe just under 150m cuz sales are gonna dry up when everyone is buying a ~$350 next gen system rather than a $300/$350 previous gen system. Sales would still trickle in from the Lite in 2025 but that would probably only be a million or so a year for a couple years. Think: 141m Mar '24, 143m Jun '24, 145m Sept '24, 148m 2024 (wouldn't expect much of a holiday for Switch with next gen launching in the Fall), 149m 2025, 150m 2026. Something like that.
But if Nintendo drops to say $170/$230/$280 a couple months before next gen starts, that'll give Switch a final boost as well as a decent holiday as people pick up 'the cheap Nintendo' who don't want to spend $350 or so on the new one. Plus Switch could keep selling somewhat decent in its post-life period so then there would definitely be potential for it to pass DS, maaaaybe even pass PS2. 160m would be a long shot even with an aggressive Switch strategy unless they did really well marketing Switch as a cheap alternative for parents to buy their kids. I mean ideally if they wanna do that they should get the Lite down under $150 to make it close to an impulse buy. Then the Lite takes over as a 3DS type cheap option for kids.
Also definitely don't think $70 will become the norm. I expect $70 for stuff like 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, MK, Smash, MP4 if its next gen, those sorts of really huge AAA 3D games that take like 4+ years to develop, but not anything else.
