The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[RolStoppable]

Fight-the-Streets said:

RolStoppable said:

3.91m to add to the total, now at 129.53m LTD. This year's forecast of 15m is basically in the bag already, unless Super Mario Bros. Wonder shocks everyone by somehow falling short of shipping 20m+ in its opening quarter.

We can expect 141m+ by March 2024, so 150m LTD is feasible by the end of 2024 if the Switch successor launches in fall 2024. Even in this timeline 160m+ remain realistic. Obviously, because one additional quarter doesn't change the outlook much in comparison to before. Least of all a quarter with great numbers.

I also think 160m+ is still possible. However, you really think Nintendo just casually ships 9mil. from April to December 2024? Wouldn't about 10mil. for FY 2025 (i.e. April 2024 to March 2025) be more realistic (and still relatively high)? 

I don't think Nintendo will let dry up Switch software in 2024, so shipments of 2m+ are doable in every quarter. This means the holiday quarter needs to be somewhere between 4-5m. It's not crazy high.

I don't agree with the prevalent assumptions that Nintendo won't offer better SKU options eventually or that Nintendo will kill off Switch sales in an attempt to get its successor off to a better start. The smooth transition period from the 3DS to Switch is something that Nintendo will want to replicate, because we can expect a significant price difference between Switch Lite and the Switch's successor, plus I fully expect Nintendo's software pricing to get raised by 10 bucks across the board. It's going to be a pretty normal gen to gen difference in pricing, so it makes sense to keep Switch going even after its successor has launched, and allow it to run its course like the 3DS was allowed to.