In fairness the 3DS was announced in 2010, the PS3 in 2005 (?) ... if the DS and PS2 could leg out to 150+ million, then if your whole argument is Switch is actually a better seller than those two ... well it was also some weak shit to say "yeah but we can't have Switch 2 announced or talked about until like 8 years into the product cycle!".

Switch has already had a pretty large advantage in being 7 years old and still not having an official announcement of a successor even though we know now dev kits are out in the wild and that news is spreading.

If you need a product cycle where you have like 8 years all to yourself and no successor announcement ... I mean, it kind of diminishes the idea that you're actually the best seller, it's more that you just have the more favorable circumstances (ridiculously favorable frankly).

I honestly don't think the Switch can get to 160. I see the successor launching next year. Even though Switch is selling VERY well in Japan, its on a downwards trajectory there and worldwide. I own two units myself and I'm not buying any more lol. I think once its announced, we should see a huge decline in sales. What I would like to see, and what could help in these final years is a PRICE CUT.

My guess is Nintendo will do this ... regular Switch model is phased out entirely in 2024, Switch OLED is dropped to $299.99 but production of this model is heavily reduced (like the PS4). Switch Lite remains at $199.99 with maybe things like Black Friday promos at $169.99 once a year.

They are going to want to push people into buying a Switch 2 instead rather than letting the existing Switch models really undercut that I think, like Switch 1 will be something that there's as a fall back option but not something Nintendo will push aggressively (same way Sony treats the PS4 hardware ... if you really want one, you can get one, but Sony is not really doing much to encourage it and trying to channel people to the PS5). 

Very different circumstances. In the past consoles used to sell well for years after a successor was released now they die pretty much as soon as a successor is announced. Also the ps2 and ds were dirt cheap in the latter part of their lives, whereas the switch hasn't really had a notable price drop. They've barely even done any bundles for the console either. The console market also seems to be diminishing in europe with that being the only market that the switch will end up being very significantly behind the ds in (also the main market where the ps5 is struggling against the ps4)

I forgot to mention that a price cut is very important for the Switch to outsell the PS2 mainly because the Switch at least compared to the DS and PS2 is struggling to sell as well in Europe.

In both NA and Japan however the Switch will inevitably be #1 all time in Japan by a comfortable margin and either #1 or #2 in NA, but will outsell the PS2 in NA as well.

The primary Achilles heal that may prevent the Switch from being the #1 bestselling globally is Europe, it's pretty far behind the PS2 and DS over there. The primary reason is cause the Switch tends to be more expensive for several countries in Europe since in certain countries a 3rd party distributor sells the Switch, not Nintendo, and for the distributor to make profit they make the Switch noticeably more expensive. It's a big reason why Europe's sales tend to react far more to price cuts then the other two regions. The Switch is still expensive in some areas of Europe to make it as appealing as the PS2 and DS were, where those consoles were dirt cheap. Even a 50$ price cut could go a long way

If the metric was always going to be "well give us 8, maybe 9 full years without a successor and it can be done" it was always kind of a dumb ask to begin with, lets be honest. No company is going to mortgage their future and hold up a successor system that has to carry the company for the following 7 years because of some arbitrary number. 

Nintendo doesn't care about this stuff either. We know that because the DS 100% could have sold 160+ million if Nintendo wanted it to and taken the record, Nintendo was so close, the fact that they gave zero fucks and still shut down DS shipments when they could have had the record tells you they don't care at all about this stuff. 

As for Europe, that's going to be a challenge for everyone if that market is in decline. 

160... no way. I think the Switch still has potential to reach 138-140 at the end of this year. ToTK gave it solid legs in the past months and the end of the year lineup, mainly Wonder, will give it a substantial boost in the holiday season to keep those strong holiday sales.

Now, if the rumours of S2 releasing in H2 of 2024 are true, i don't see them releasing a console in the 2nd half before atleast the September-November period. That gives the Switch close to another year on the market. They probably will tease they will release a new console around March or something but i don't expect the reveal to be before 2 months before release. That will still make 2024 a pretty dry in news for Switch, a more cruise control year similar to what 2020 was. They will have more Luigi's Mansion 1 type release, maybe the Zelda WW and TP remasters and stuff like that. That could still give the console enough juice to sell around 10-12 millions next year. It would end the year at around 150 millions with the rival on the market.

Thing is, it will depend on how they approach the new system. If it's only a more premium and powerful Switch, backward compatible and around 350-400$, i doubt the previous models will stay on the market for long. But if it's a more expensive model at 450$, they might keep it as a cheaper alternative for a year or two before cutting it out and could give it enough to pass the DS. But in no scenario do i see it reach the PS2. Still, the fact that a Nintendo console is making us have this conversation after the Wii U and 3DS is quite the turnaround.

Man, that's *way* too soon to be phasing out the original Switch model. If the next gen starts during the second half of 2024, then the Switch will have had around >15mil in its last true fiscal year according to this plan; this would be absurd for Nintendo to do. I believe that if they phase out one model, the rest go with it. I could certainly see 2025 or maybe 2026? But the console will be sold and produced by Nintendo for a while into the next console lifespan.

Also, I feel it would be rather counter-intuitive for Nintendo to put price cuts on their old software. If Nintendo doesn't want ppl purchasing Switch games (they wouldn't want this because then the Switch would start competing with Switch 2), then why sell the console at a loss? Only reason the PS4 was an exception was due to their PS5 shortage; they wanted to continue with software sales but lacked the capacity for hardware units.

Console sales for year that successor releases:

DS:14 Million
Wii:4 Million
PS4:7 Million
GBA:15 Million
GB:4 Million
3DS:7 Million

Based on this, I think a reasonable sales figure for the Switch for the fiscal year where the successor launches is around 7M.

The GBA sold extremely well the year the DS came out even though the DS was backwards compatible. However, the GBA was only 3-4 years old when the DS came out and hasn't reached a point of saturation yet and was retailing for 80$ compared to the DS's 150$, which is a significant difference.

The DS sold well, but it did this before the 3DS price cut, after sales fell off a cliff.

I've always been skeptical of the switch passing the ps2. With the heavy rumors of a switch 2 in 2024 I'm even more skeptical.