160... no way. I think the Switch still has potential to reach 138-140 at the end of this year. ToTK gave it solid legs in the past months and the end of the year lineup, mainly Wonder, will give it a substantial boost in the holiday season to keep those strong holiday sales.
Now, if the rumours of S2 releasing in H2 of 2024 are true, i don't see them releasing a console in the 2nd half before atleast the September-November period. That gives the Switch close to another year on the market. They probably will tease they will release a new console around March or something but i don't expect the reveal to be before 2 months before release. That will still make 2024 a pretty dry in news for Switch, a more cruise control year similar to what 2020 was. They will have more Luigi's Mansion 1 type release, maybe the Zelda WW and TP remasters and stuff like that. That could still give the console enough juice to sell around 10-12 millions next year. It would end the year at around 150 millions with the rival on the market.
Thing is, it will depend on how they approach the new system. If it's only a more premium and powerful Switch, backward compatible and around 350-400$, i doubt the previous models will stay on the market for long. But if it's a more expensive model at 450$, they might keep it as a cheaper alternative for a year or two before cutting it out and could give it enough to pass the DS. But in no scenario do i see it reach the PS2. Still, the fact that a Nintendo console is making us have this conversation after the Wii U and 3DS is quite the turnaround.
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