Nothing wrong with it.

If i kill a person and just think thats not true,whats the big deal?

It its NOT TRUE.

Its a lie.(at least its not true YET)

i just find it verry strange why anyone should lie about things to themselves.

Its strange,but i respect it, its your life after all.

I came to this original conclusion of a 33.4% decline based on honestly personal preference.

I will do a bit more digging.

From what I’ve gathered it looks like more mature consoles have a near ~43% decline when in the presence of their successor for a second year. And every Nintendo console/handheld (DS & Wii onward) that sells during the launch year of its successor sees an average of ~45% decline, so the Switch is above this by 7.5%. And during the second year of Nintendo consoles and handhelds selling alongside their successor it is an average of ~48%. We can assume an error of +8% towards the decline. So we can expect 48-56% decline for Nintendo’s next FY Switch forecast.

Based on this I will revise and estimate that Nintendo will forecast for their next FY (Apr 1, 2026-Mar 31, 2027) 2.0M-2.5M Switch units shipped.

If Nintendo reaches this FY forecast of 4.5M, they will have shipped 156.62M. Add the guesstimate of 2.5M and Nintendo will hopefully reach 158.62-159.12M units shipped. Meaning by Mar 31, 2027 Nintendo will need to ship 0.98M-1.48M units in order to surpass the PS2. This 2.5M is a 60.8% decline which is in between the last year for the DS (71% decline) and Wii (54% decline) and in line with the 3DS (60% decline).

2.5M seems very doable and 0.98M seems fair for its last year of production.

I love it. I can basically just say whatever i want for whatever reason i want and i dont need to worry about the truth getting in the way of that. I dont have to look anything up, I dont have to check sources, i dont ever have to worry about doing any research, also, whenever anybody replies and debunks something i said, i dont ever experience that anxiety of being wrong and having to scramble to save face in front of everybody. i just let things slide off my back and it really doesnt matter to me what anybody says about anything because in my mind, whatever it is i said is what im going to go with. been taking this approach for years and honestly its improved every aspect of my life from career, to family, to interpersonal relationships, to dealing with people like you, and anything else you could possibly imagine. and you are going to say i should give that up because the truth should be respected? i dont care.

That's still quite optimistic I'd say but definitely way more reasonable. With the next fiscal year being the first fully post Switch 2 one, the price increase in certain territories, how much the Switch 1 has declined this year and Nintendo in general not showing much interest in continuing to sell it so far makes me think they'll ship below 2M but we'll find out by May.

I think the last Direct helped the Switch keep some momentum. We had no new 3D Mario game and the Galaxy games being cross-plataform helps the Switch have more gas in the tank. Two of the most important Nintendo games coming to the Switch is nothing to look down on.


We also have to consider the Super Mario Galaxy movie. I doubt Nintendo reveal their new 3D Mario game before the movie release in April, so there won't exist any expectation for a lot of people to buy a Switch 2 until there... unless the new 3D Mario game is indeed a Super Mario Galaxy 3. Then it will probably be revealed in the February Nintendo Direct. If that's not the case, the Switch will have some space under the spotlight during the Mario Galaxy Movie mania

I don't see it. Sure its possible but its not necessary. Switch is a huge success as it is. Nintendo may never get another .opportunity like Covid.

its not necessary? i thought it was necessary. i guess this thread was just a giant waste of time then. why didn't you tell us this sooner?

One thing I will point out is that Switch 1 in comparison to the DS post-successor launch is going to have way more games.

Really after the 3DS release, the only worthwhile game that came out was Pokémon Black & White.

Meanwhile the Switch 1 is going to get Prime 4, the Mario Galaxy games, Pokémon Z-A, Tomadachi Life. Yea its not a crazy good lineup either, but definitely much better than the nearly non-existent DS library post successor.

I could see Tomadachi Life potentially being the biggest system seller for Switch 1 since thats the only fanbase that hasn't already purchased a Switch 1 since its the first game on the Switch. Pokémon is still relatively big too, Galaxy games and Prime 4 maybe not so much but still could give the Switch a bit more left in the tank compared to DS. Especially with the Switch Lite still only being half the price of Switch 2.

I think i did.  I've been wrong about the Switch before but now... what i see is a final solid push which will set it up to pass the DS in a year and then a protracted wait to see if it can pass the PS2.  The goal here is to hit 160 million sold not shipped.

It can still do it but...the wait is gonna get really crazy.  Its gonna get so long that Nintendo might stop shipping consoles before it hits 160 tbh.  Everything Nintendo doesn't sell this year will lower what they ship next year... Sales will hit a dive by next year.  

It had a great run but from a business perspective,  and seeing how their pricing model has changed im thinking Nintendo itself it greatly advantages by dropping Switch 1 as fast as possible.

You mean Pokémon Black 2/White 2