| Shtinamin_ said: According to available data (VGChartz July Worldwide Estimates & Japan Aug-Sept 13 Estimates) Switch has sold (according to Shipment of June 30th & estimations) 153,470,382 units. Based on last official Nintendo Shipment, the estimate overestimated by 22k, so I will consider this 153.47M rather accurate. Since the release of the Switch 2, the Switch has averaged ~64,746 units/week (excluding only Japan estimates of Aug-Sept 13, as if I wanted weekly I’d want the complete week from all regions. If this trend continues until Nov 1, we should expect the Switch to reach 841,693.667 ~154,193,422 units sold (for if Nintendo shipped it is considered sold). And if we continue to Dec 31, 2025 (I’ll use Worldwide February 2025 estimates for Nov and Dec) it should reach ~155,221,898.
In each region, the Switch in FY’25 has sold 381,497 units in the Americas, 286,676 units in Europe, 458,075 in Japan. Overall it’s ~1,350,382. And by Dec 31, 2025 this estimate should be 3,101,898 units. Meaning by the end of the fiscal year Nintendo only needs to ship 1,398,102 units from Jan-Mar 31, 2026 in order to reach their goal of 4.5M, 156.62M.
In order to surpass the alleged PS2 shipment numbers (maxed out at) 160.1M, the Switch needs to sell 3.48M after (hopefully) reaching the FY’25 goal. We can make an assumption that the FY’26 goal would be anywhere from a 25-50% decrease from 4.5M. I guesstimate it should be 3M, a 33.4% decrease. Meaning after Mar 31, 2027 Nintendo will only need to ship 480k. Very doable. |
Why do you assume a 25-50% decline range for the next fiscal year when it's going to decline by over 50% this one? This fiscal year has even included a couple months pre-Switch 2 launch in it so the decline is clearly gonna be a lot bigger than 33.4%.
Last edited by Norion - on 21 September 2025
