The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

Norion said:

Shtinamin_ said:

In order to surpass the alleged PS2 shipment numbers (maxed out at) 160.1M, the Switch needs to sell 3.48M after (hopefully) reaching the FY’25 goal.

We can make an assumption that the FY’26 goal would be anywhere from a 25-50% decrease from 4.5M. I guesstimate it should be 3M, a 33.4% decrease.

Meaning after Mar 31, 2027 Nintendo will only need to ship 480k. Very doable.

Why do you assume a 25-50% decline range for the next fiscal year when it's going to decline by over 50% this one? This fiscal year has even included a couple months pre-Switch 2 launch in it so the decline is clearly gonna be a lot bigger than 33.4%.

I came to this original conclusion of a 33.4% decline based on honestly personal preference.

I will do a bit more digging.

From what I’ve gathered it looks like more mature consoles have a near ~43% decline when in the presence of their successor for a second year. And every Nintendo console/handheld (DS & Wii onward) that sells during the launch year of its successor sees an average of ~45% decline, so the Switch is above this by 7.5%. And during the second year of Nintendo consoles and handhelds selling alongside their successor it is an average of ~48%. We can assume an error of +8% towards the decline. So we can expect 48-56% decline for Nintendo’s next FY Switch forecast.

Based on this I will revise and estimate that Nintendo will forecast for their next FY (Apr 1, 2026-Mar 31, 2027) 2.0M-2.5M Switch units shipped.

If Nintendo reaches this FY forecast of 4.5M, they will have shipped 156.62M. Add the guesstimate of 2.5M and Nintendo will hopefully reach 158.62-159.12M units shipped. Meaning by Mar 31, 2027 Nintendo will need to ship 0.98M-1.48M units in order to surpass the PS2. This 2.5M is a 60.8% decline which is in between the last year for the DS (71% decline) and Wii (54% decline) and in line with the 3DS (60% decline).

2.5M seems very doable and 0.98M seems fair for its last year of production.