"It's not fair comparison, the PS2 didn't just take the PS1 market but also the dvd players market"

Refurbished PS2's from Sony are part of the total sell-in number for their consoles. Sony says this on their own website for their shipment data. 

The most popular chains in the US have a few thousand locations country wide, and that's a country with a LOT of stores nationwide. Most other countries wouldn't have that many store locations. This is especially true when you consider growth. There are 4k Walmarts nationwide in the US today, and over 10k worldwide, but back when the PS2 came out Walmart had only 4k stores worldwide. Walmart is one of if not the biggest companies in the world based on revenue too, so all other game stores or other types of chains wouldn't have numbers like this. Even considering the biggest chain of stores in the world you can see that you don't need millions of units to provide demos or kiosks, and replaced/returned kiosk units would undoubtedly become refurbished products that count towards the sell in number. 

But a refurbished/ repared or for whatever reason returned PS2 can hardly be a seperate shipped (sold in) unit, let alone count to "produced"? If so then this 160.6 million number of produced units has to be a lot lower in reality?! So if i send my PS2 lets say in 2016 (reparing stopped in 2018) Sony would really have called it "shipped"? If so then its absolutley clear where these "160 million sold" PS2s are from. And sorry this cannot be counted as "sold". If i worked at Mercedes and sold you a car, this car breaks and i repare it, would you say i "sold" you another one? If thats true than why the hell did they said "155 million as of 2012" and changed it to "160 million as of 2012"? So:

1.) Sony counts RESOLD (already once sold) PS2s!

2.) Sony counted Demo Stations wich where in fact NOT SOLD TO COSTUMERS but sent back to Sony!

3.) Sony changed their already confirmed Numbers.

Conclusio: Sony's 160.6 million or whatever fantasynumber they "confirmed" cannot be true in the sense of consoles shipped, let alone sold through. 

Of course this requires that what you said is really true!

Spreadsheet updated.

Nintendo's holiday quarter was on the low side, causing them to revise their hardware forecast down to 11m for the year. Which just so happens to be the number that I had expected them to announce as their original forecast for the fiscal year before they surprised me with 13.5m. Back then my conclusion was that they would have a revision because the number was so ambitious, but ultimately it turned out that they had nothing and did barely anything. 11m is sufficient to remain on course for the best-selling console of all time, but that's all it is.

Moving on to the targets set previously. LTD shipments by December 31st 2024:

Japan: 36.82m, so ~3m to go to hit 40m. 3.48m shipped in calendar year 2024.
Americas: 57.83m, so ~2m to go to hit 60m. 3.97m in CY24.
Europe: 39.00m, so 1m to go to hit 40m. 2.85m in CY24.
Other: 17.22m, so ~3m to go to hit 20m. 1.19m in CY24

You should have instantly noticed that I adjusted Europe's target down by 5m, bringing the grand total down to 160m again. The reason for this adjustment is that Europe has been so far away from its target that it looked unreachable when working with incrementals of 5m.

So how is it looking for each region?

Japan is a 50/50 chance of hitting 40m. While sell-through in early 2025 has remained strong, Japan happens to be the region where generational transitions for Nintendo consoles happen the fastest. Switch might still ship 2m in CY25, but getting the final million won't be easy.

Americas is a lock, there just isn't much distance left to cover. The same holds true for Europe.

Other has about a 10% chance of getting to 20m. Sure, the gap isn't that big, but the region is moving at a snails pace. It wouldn't be shocking to see Other finish below the 19m mark.

Combine all of the above and it means that Americas and Europe need to sell about an extra 1.5m units to make up for the potential shortcomings of Japan and Other. That really isn't much, hence why 11m for this fiscal year is a figure I've always considered sufficient.

Should be doable but i don't know if i should up my minimum prediction of 155 million till march 2027 to 157 million...

Bumping my post from last year, looks like Japan and Europe LTD through Q4 2024 was more or less where I was expecting them to be (working with increments of 0.25m). Still, the Switch appears to be falling more precipitously in America, where disposable income is higher, and people are holding off on purchases until new hardware is released. My outlook for Q4 of the fiscal year and next fiscal year remains the same, between 1.5-2m for this quarter and a 6m target for the next fiscal year being attainable alongside 18-20m Switch 2 units during the same timeframe. Our attention soon turns to what the successor will manage in its launch year.

I'm not saying they count as numbers produced. They count as sell-in (i.e. shipped). 

But if the produced number is actually true, and 160.6 was produced, and the over 160M number includes repaired/returned units, that leaves a large portion of the discrepancy of 600k units for demo stations, which was one persons point of contention here. 

Anyway, to target your points. I think there is some misunderstandings. 

Edit: 1) I don't think Sony is double dipping a bunch per-se. I think Sony considers that if they resold a product themselves that counts as another sale. Since Sony is not a big player in the used market, it wouldn't count for much. 

2) I'm saying demo stations count for produced but not for shipped. Broken demo units sent back to Sony, fixed, and then resold to a consumer would count as a sale to Sony. 

That Switch 2 presentation is going to make or break Switch 1's end of life cycle - Specifically that MSRP price and launch lineup.

The DS was still selling pretty well even after the 3DS launched - The main reason being the 3DS' $250 launch price, uninteresting gimmick, and lack of killer apps/great launch software made it stumble out of the gate, so fans just stuck with the DS.
Then the 3DS got that price cut to $170 - which made it the same price as the DSi and that was the beginning of the end for the DS. Fast forward to Holiday 2011 and that 1-2 combo of 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 hit shelves, and from that point on the 3DS' software started rolling in and that was all she wrote. It may have still gotten stellar software afterwards (Black/White 2) but as far as hardware sales went - the DS was done after that.

Will history repeat itself with the Switch 1 -> Switch 2 transition?
Assuming Switch 1 doesn't get a price cut at all for any models and they stay where they are - That's already one thing they'll have going against it. But if Switch 2 launches at $400 like most are expecting/predicting or even higher, while I don't think it'll struggle nearly as much as the 3DS did at $250 and it'll still sell extremely well despite the steep price - even if it's $450, that will put enough of a gap and distance between it and the Switch 1 models to where the people who are more hesitant and tight with their spending will just opt to stick with Switch 1 - Especially the base and Lite models as their entry points.
But if Switch 2 ends up being $350 - that's going to really cut a substantial amount the Switch 1's legs off to where I don't think it'll catch the PS2 at that point. And if by some miracle the Switch 2 ends up being $300 - that's 'Game Over' for Switch 1 and it'll be limping past the DS before it collapses.

@PAOerfulone I definitely don't see NS2 launching at $350, otherwise they would've definitely cut the price on all NS1 models. Assuming no price drops, I see NS2 launching in the $450-$500 range. Close to PS5 & XSX, but that reminds me of how NS1 was priced close to PS4 & One, but still ended up doing incredibly well.

I do hope NS1 has enough in the tank to reach 161m (since PS2 is "over 160m", I feel like 161m would settle things definitively). The holiday sales were slightly lower than I expected (though they'd cross 151m and come respectably close to 152m), but they could still just barely make it to 161m. Personally feel like they'll keep NS1 on the market until maybe right before Holiday 2027, which could give them just enough quarters to get to 161m.

More Mario Brothers universe games please