The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[PAOerfulone]

That Switch 2 presentation is going to make or break Switch 1's end of life cycle - Specifically that MSRP price and launch lineup.

The DS was still selling pretty well even after the 3DS launched - The main reason being the 3DS' $250 launch price, uninteresting gimmick, and lack of killer apps/great launch software made it stumble out of the gate, so fans just stuck with the DS.
Then the 3DS got that price cut to $170 - which made it the same price as the DSi and that was the beginning of the end for the DS. Fast forward to Holiday 2011 and that 1-2 combo of 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 hit shelves, and from that point on the 3DS' software started rolling in and that was all she wrote. It may have still gotten stellar software afterwards (Black/White 2) but as far as hardware sales went - the DS was done after that.

Will history repeat itself with the Switch 1 -> Switch 2 transition?
Assuming Switch 1 doesn't get a price cut at all for any models and they stay where they are - That's already one thing they'll have going against it. But if Switch 2 launches at $400 like most are expecting/predicting or even higher, while I don't think it'll struggle nearly as much as the 3DS did at $250 and it'll still sell extremely well despite the steep price - even if it's $450, that will put enough of a gap and distance between it and the Switch 1 models to where the people who are more hesitant and tight with their spending will just opt to stick with Switch 1 - Especially the base and Lite models as their entry points.
But if Switch 2 ends up being $350 - that's going to really cut a substantial amount the Switch 1's legs off to where I don't think it'll catch the PS2 at that point. And if by some miracle the Switch 2 ends up being $300 - that's 'Game Over' for Switch 1 and it'll be limping past the DS before it collapses.