The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[RolStoppable]

RolStoppable said:

Bringing this post back because I've kept doing this every few quarters. Three fiscal quarters have passed since the last time and Japan is so far ahead of my expectations that its target will be revised to 40m which in turn increases the global target to 165m. Shipments by region by September 30th 2024:

Japan: 35.62m, so ~4m to go to hit 40m.
Americas: 56.11m, so ~4m to go to hit 60m.
Europe: 37.52m, so ~7m to go to hit 45m.
Other: 16.79m, so ~3m to go to hit 20m.

Again, these targets now total 165m, so not all of them need to be met to beat the PS2. Japan beats my expectations, but in turn Europe and Other lag behind a bit. 2024 didn't get a Pokémon game, but Super Mario Party Jamboree works as a substitute.

Spreadsheet updated.

Nintendo's holiday quarter was on the low side, causing them to revise their hardware forecast down to 11m for the year. Which just so happens to be the number that I had expected them to announce as their original forecast for the fiscal year before they surprised me with 13.5m. Back then my conclusion was that they would have a revision because the number was so ambitious, but ultimately it turned out that they had nothing and did barely anything. 11m is sufficient to remain on course for the best-selling console of all time, but that's all it is.

Moving on to the targets set previously. LTD shipments by December 31st 2024:

Japan: 36.82m, so ~3m to go to hit 40m. 3.48m shipped in calendar year 2024.
Americas: 57.83m, so ~2m to go to hit 60m. 3.97m in CY24.
Europe: 39.00m, so 1m to go to hit 40m. 2.85m in CY24.
Other: 17.22m, so ~3m to go to hit 20m. 1.19m in CY24

You should have instantly noticed that I adjusted Europe's target down by 5m, bringing the grand total down to 160m again. The reason for this adjustment is that Europe has been so far away from its target that it looked unreachable when working with incrementals of 5m.

So how is it looking for each region?

Japan is a 50/50 chance of hitting 40m. While sell-through in early 2025 has remained strong, Japan happens to be the region where generational transitions for Nintendo consoles happen the fastest. Switch might still ship 2m in CY25, but getting the final million won't be easy.

Americas is a lock, there just isn't much distance left to cover. The same holds true for Europe.

Other has about a 10% chance of getting to 20m. Sure, the gap isn't that big, but the region is moving at a snails pace. It wouldn't be shocking to see Other finish below the 19m mark.

Combine all of the above and it means that Americas and Europe need to sell about an extra 1.5m units to make up for the potential shortcomings of Japan and Other. That really isn't much, hence why 11m for this fiscal year is a figure I've always considered sufficient.