@FarleyMcFirefly Assuming Nintendo at least comes close to their software forecast for this FY, I would think that 1.5 billion for software would be pretty easy to achieve. Even though hardware would usually crater after a new system launches and I expect no major games on Switch 1 after Switch 2 launches (unless Z-A & Prime 4 don't release on Switch 1 until after Switch 2 launches), software sales typically don't grind to a halt. I think Switch software can still be decent for a few years after Switch 2 launches especially if there is backwards compatibility and performance upgrades.

GBA games didn't stop being sold until like 2011 I believe and 3DS games are still selling. Both were/are basically nothing at those points, but it's several years after a successor launched.

rage bait. ignore him.

Oh my goodness. I completely forgot to take BC into account. If it keeps selling it could end up #1 in both hardware and software. Crazy to think.

Even if the next system isn't BC, 1.5 billion in software should be a lock.
All those millions of Switch owners aren't just going to stop buying games the moment the successor comes out; it will take several years for the bulk of its userbase to upgrade.
There are also still games in the pipeline that will sell significant numbers; Pokémon Legends Z-A, Mario Party Jamboree, Zelda Echoes of Wisdom...

@FarleyMcFirefly What is #1 in software? Is it the PS4?

They need a price cut after Switch 2 is announced. That way it could reach 160 millions by the end of 2025.

Depends on how much they actually gain from the Switch 2 sales. They'll probably will sale at a profit from the start again but they would also cut in the easiest revenue stream by cutting into the Switch OLED/Base model profit.

I do wonder if Nvidia's delays on Blackwell architecture are impacting Nintendo. Not that Nintendo would be using Blackwell most likely (3nm) but it's been heavily discussed that Nintendo may have gone custom 5nm on their T239 chip, expecting at this point that Nvidia would have moved their main production off to Blackwell lines and thus having tons of 5nm capacity open. 

Delays may actually be a pretty good indicator that Nintendo is using 5nm, because if Hopper (5nm) is still tying up Nvidia's 5nm production, then it would make a whole lot of sense of Nintendo opting to wait into 2025 (they may also have had no choice). 

Nvidia's Blackwell architecture GPUs has been pushed back to early 2025, just like Switch 2 has for those who don't know but Blackwell was supposed to launch this fall initially. 

Essentially if Nintendo chose 5nm as their production process from Nvidia TSMC and they were going by Nvidia's product release schedule then by fall 2024, 5nm production should have been massively open (and thus cheaper) by around this time. But with a Blackwell delay to 2025, it may have also forced a Switch 2 into 2025 also because those production lines Nintendo thought would be open by now are still making high demand AI chips. Blackwell basically needs to release for Nintendo to have wide open and cheap 5nm production if 5nm is indeed what they've chosen. 

So if you want to know how much runway the Switch 1 has or when Switch 2 might launch, keeping tabs on when Nvidia's Blackwell architecture hits mass production might be something you want to keep an eye on. 

According to VG chartz

The PS4 sold more software than the PS2. Vgchartz latest software sales figures don't seem to be updated for the PS4. That or maybe Sony includes download-only titles in their software sales figure which Vgchartz may not count but I'm not sure.

But in 2021 it was confirmed PS4 outsold the PS2's software sales with its 2021 figure being at around 1.57 Billion sold and likely decently higher in 2024, maybe like 1.7 billion.