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I do wonder if Nvidia's delays on Blackwell architecture are impacting Nintendo. Not that Nintendo would be using Blackwell most likely (3nm) but it's been heavily discussed that Nintendo may have gone custom 5nm on their T239 chip, expecting at this point that Nvidia would have moved their main production off to Blackwell lines and thus having tons of 5nm capacity open.
Delays may actually be a pretty good indicator that Nintendo is using 5nm, because if Hopper (5nm) is still tying up Nvidia's 5nm production, then it would make a whole lot of sense of Nintendo opting to wait into 2025 (they may also have had no choice).
Nvidia's Blackwell architecture GPUs has been pushed back to early 2025, just like Switch 2 has for those who don't know but Blackwell was supposed to launch this fall initially.
Essentially if Nintendo chose 5nm as their production process from Nvidia TSMC and they were going by Nvidia's product release schedule then by fall 2024, 5nm production should have been massively open (and thus cheaper) by around this time. But with a Blackwell delay to 2025, it may have also forced a Switch 2 into 2025 also because those production lines Nintendo thought would be open by now are still making high demand AI chips. Blackwell basically needs to release for Nintendo to have wide open and cheap 5nm production if 5nm is indeed what they've chosen.
So if you want to know how much runway the Switch 1 has or when Switch 2 might launch, keeping tabs on when Nvidia's Blackwell architecture hits mass production might be something you want to keep an eye on.
Last edited by Soundwave - on 10 August 2024
