(Had to break this into two posts because VGC has been having weird formatting issues when quoting)

Looking at the current trajectory for the Switch, it's hard to see how it can reach 160M at this point. While I may have been wrong in the past about how much the Switch was going to sell (which to be fair just about everyone was at one point), one thing I was always right about was how quickly the Switch would decline after being replaced. Nintendo systems have rarely had good legs. The NES & SNES had decent legs, but they also had decent support after their successors came out, and Nintendo still produced them in decent numbers as well. NES games were still being made and released through 1994, and Nintendo shipped over 20% of the NES's lifetime units after March 31, 1991 (about halfway between the Japanese and N. American releases of the NES). Meanwhile, the N64, GameCube, and Wii all had terrible post-replacement legs. With their handhelds, the GBA and 3DS did have decent legs late in life, but that's because the DS and Switch were not their "official" replacements in the way that the GBA was the Game Boy's replacement and the 3DS was the DS's replacement.

The Switch has been declining at a rate only slightly slower than the DS did after it was replaced. In terms of total sales volume, it's way behind what the DS was selling after the 3DS was released. The DS didn't even sell 3M units after 2011, which may give us a sense of what the Switch is looking at in the coming quarters. The Switch was down 70% worldwide in Q4 2025, and that was after steadily growing YoY drops. If shipments drops another 70% this calendar year, it will ship only 1.35M units. If I had to guess, Nintendo might ship another 2M this year and next year total, maybe 2.5M optimistically. It will clear 157M, but probably fall short of 158M.

It wasn't deleted because you were discussing PSP and PSVITA?

That's the second time you've been a smartass about it. Yeah. I slipped up because I was thinking of examples of software effecting hardware. Whoops. Fixed.

Have fun on another thread.

Tomodachi is a Switch 1 title only. They were pretty emphatic in the direct when talking about being only COMPATIBLE with Switch 2 system.

Saying that, I also dont think Tomodachi will give any significant impact to S1. Tomodachi and Animal Crossing audience overlap a lot

There is one more major title that could give a huge hardware boost to Switch 1. One that has been in development for years, but we've heard next to nothing about it.
Dragon Quest XII.
Back when Dragon Quest XI released in July 2017, it provided such a massive boost to the 3DS that it actually sold more than Switch 1 that week. Now granted, Dragon Quest doesn't really have much of an audience in the West. But in Japan? It isn't just any JRPG franchise - It's THE JRPG franchise. Dragon Quest is iconic over there and if history repeats itself where the Switch 1 vesrion comes first and the Definitive Edition on Switch 2 doesn't come until later, then that will move quite a lot of Switch 1 units and inject some life into the system.
Would it inject enough life to where it gets it to 160m? Probably not, but it would definitely boost its chances.

I could've sworn it would be on both systems.

Oh well. My point still stands. We're not going to be seeing major system-selling power out of any Switch 1 releases going forward.

100 million will be reached before the biggest games this gen GTA VI. I expect PS5 sales to double in second half this year compared to 2025 thanks to GTA. Its the follow-up to a game that has sold a quarter of a billion units.
PS5 will reach 120 million by the end of the year and around 160 million by end of 2030.

I was trying to figure out the core of kilik’s joke and the joke is that it’s moderator bait.
They probably have 10x other stuff going on with their lives more important than to have to deal with variants of that joke over and over.
Because if you think about it, from their perspective they have to read it carefully, think about it, and then implement their action or non-action.

I wonder if they'll cut back more then planned on switch 1 production in favour of of switch 2.

Those extra Japanese Switch 2 units have to come from somewhere.