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Forums - Sales - Famitsu sales: Week 5, 2022 - (24th Jan - 30th Jan)

Chrkeller on 03 February 2022
Mandalore76 said:
Chrkeller said:

The Switch is 5 years old.  I personally don't see, per the middle comment, that the Switch will go 10 years without an upgrade of some sort.  Look, I could be wrong.  Don't read my posts as though I have insider information, I'm just going off history.  6-7 years with an upgrade/replacement is standard business.  

By the way, I appreciate you leaving yourself room to be wrong.  I could be totally wrong as well.  I just think that if Nintendo has new hardware coming out next year, we're passing/passed the tipping point of when so much as a codename should have been stated publicly already.  And the reason I don't see the Switch dropping 10 million sales in one year is because of how much more big title software the Switch has on the horizon than the Wii did near the end.  And the Wii had much more compact drops.

It is a fair and likely accurate point you bring up.  It could be a few more years before we get new hardware.  I've been gaming since the NES, it just seems crazy to me that hardware would last ~8 years without an upgrade.  Granted the market has changed over time, so anything is possible.  I personally would welcome the Switch having another ~3 years left in life, for two reasons.  First I love the hardware because the software is amazing.  Dread is my favorite Metroid to date and Arceus is exactly where Pokemon needs to go.  And secondly I prefer giant leaps in hardware upgrades, the longer Nintendo goes the larger the upgrade.  I think the Switch 2 will be quite something.  



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Wyrdness on 03 February 2022

Switch entered the middle of its life in 2021 which means they plan an eight year run for it in total, 2022 would still be in the middle of this run, 3DS for one had a nine year run, GB had a 14 year run, DS had a nine year run. Each run had the successor out two years before it came to a close so following that route a Switch successor would be out in 2024 if anything.



Norion on 03 February 2022
Chrkeller said:
Norion said:

I've maintained for a while now that about 140m should be the minimum the Switch reaches so 10 and then 5 is a bit too low to me but that's close enough to 140m that I'll accept the difference. A lot of it will come down to when the successor releases.

Agreed 100%.  The Switch 2 is going to decide a lot, especially if it is full BC.  Hopefully I'm not disappointed but I expect full BC with a 2023 launch, 2024 at the latest.  

Yeah I expect the Switch to decline rapidly after the successor launches like the DS did assuming it's got BC. For the date I would've picked holiday 2023 as the most likely date in the past but if they were targeting then originally the pandemic and chip shortages very well could make them delay the launch into 2024. They'll wanna avoid the shortages that have harmed the Xbox Series and especially the PS5 as much as they can so waiting a year longer than originally planned might be what they end up doing.



noshten on 03 February 2022

Famitsu Top 50 2021 (Official Ranking SKU combined)

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.350.693
  2. [NSW] Pokemon Brilliant Diamond / Shining Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 2.313.115
  3. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.266.477
  4. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (Nintendo) - 971.418
  5. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) – 904.685
  6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) – 815.174
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) – 708.670
  8. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) – 704.134
  9. [NSW] Mario Party Superstars (Nintendo) - 628.538
  10. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) – 610.964
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + EP (Pokemon Co.) - 429.821
  12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo) - 352.133
  13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 + EP (Nintendo) - 349.143
  14. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 318.331
  15. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 312.931
  16. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo) - 306.580
  17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD (Nintendo) - 278.747
  18. [NSW] Miitopia (Nintendo) - 274.912
  19. [NSW] Game Builder Garage (Nintendo) - 274.221
  20. [NSW] Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 242.876
  21. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild + EP (Nintendo) - 226.002
  22. [NSW] Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 223.833
  23. [PS4] Tales of Arise (Bandai Namco) - 220.122
  24. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 206.312
  25. [NSW] Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 199.646
  26. [NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush (Nintendo) - 198.426
  27. [NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V (Atlus) - 192.518
  28. [NSW] WarioWare: Get It Together! (Nintendo) - 187.423
  29. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 175.792
  30. [PS4] Lost Judgment (Sega) - 163.607
  31. [NSW] Big Brain Academy (Nintendo) - 155.023
  32. [PS4] Demon Slayer (Aniplex) - 150.056
  33. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) - 145.871
  34. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 144.614
  35. [NSW] Yu-Gi-Oh! Rush Duel (Konami) - 142.161
  36. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 140.391
  37. [NSW] Metroid Dread (Nintendo) - 140.330
  38. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) - 139.980
  39. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Nintendo) - 139.146
  40. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 134.919
  41. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 132.247
  42. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 126.373
  43. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) - 125.450
  44. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo) - 119.330
  45. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 116.296
  46. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 113.231
  47. [NSW] Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 96.681
  48. [NSW] Super Robot Wars 30 (Bandai Namco) - 96.094
  49. [NSW] Little Nightmares 2 (Bandai Namco) – 95.018
  50. [NSW] Tsukihime (Aniplex) - 94.462

TOTAL: 18.954.917
NSW: 18.039.028 (95.2%)
PS4: 915.889 (4.8%)

Famitsu Top 50 2021(Unofficial Ranking)

TOTAL: 18.647.548
NSW: 17.796.170 (95.4%)
PS4: 851.378 (4.6%)

So I was 4 games shy of guessing correct that 110K would be the bar to cross to make the Top 50 this year;

Top 14 Publishers

  1. Nintendo - 8.047.630 (42.5%)
  2. Pokemon Co - 3.062.072 (16.1%)
  3. Capcom - 2.799.881 (14.8%)
  4. Konami - 1.642.471 (8.7%)
  5. Microsoft - 805.351 (4.2%)
  6. Bandai Namco - 640.961 (3.4%)
  7. Marvelous - 458.722 (2.4%)
  8. Square Enix - 452.653 (2.4%)
  9. Aniplex - 244.518 (1.3%)
  10. Neos - 199.646 (1%)
  11. Atlus - 192.518 (1%)
  12. Sega - 163.607 (0.9%)
  13. Imagineer - 134.919 (0.7%)
  14. Teyon Japan - 126.373 (0.7%)
  15. Sony - 0 (0%)
Last edited by noshten - on 04 February 2022

refutableport on 03 February 2022
SKMBlake said:
Chrkeller said:

It will cool around 130 million (or so).

Since it's at 103.5 at this point, and still have at least 3 years to go, you think the sales will fall of a cliff ?

Never thought of that, I remember the Wii going through a similar trajectory in its fifth year. Follow ups to mega-successful Nintendo consoles also usually fair poorly.



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curl-6 on 03 February 2022

Great numbers for Arceus. Debuting bigger than the likes of Splatoon 2, Smash Ultimate, or Sword and Shield is no small feat.

Pretty sure Nintendo's just confirmed shortages for the Switch so the modest hardware boost is kinda expected in light of that.



curl-6 on 03 February 2022
refutableport said:
SKMBlake said:

Since it's at 103.5 at this point, and still have at least 3 years to go, you think the sales will fall of a cliff ?

Never thought of that, I remember the Wii going through a similar trajectory in its fifth year. Follow ups to mega-successful Nintendo consoles also usually fair poorly.

The Switch is in a very different position to the Wii.

It's sales trajectory is very different, (Wii peaked in year 2, Switch in year 4) and where software support dried up for the Wii in year 5 and 6, Switch's 5th year has seen no such decline and it's 6th looks to have a very strong lineup as well.



Kakadu18 on 03 February 2022
Chrkeller said:

Lower hardware sales compared to last year despite a new Pokemon. Looks like a saturation point is happening. I still think the Switch doesn't hit the DS/ps2 in sales. It will cool around 130 million (or so). Which isn't a jab, being 3rd all time is nothing but superb.

It's mostly the OLED being supply constrained and not saturation. Maybe there's saturation for the Lite, but not for the Switch as a whole.



Kakadu18 on 03 February 2022

PLA's launch is remarkably big, bigger even than BDSP's launch. Digital might also be higher since it was sold out at some retailers.



Kakadu18 on 03 February 2022
Chrkeller said:
SKMBlake said:

Since it's at 103.5 at this point, and still have at least 3 years to go, you think the sales will fall of a cliff ?

Depends on what you mean by a cliff.  I just think it will cool off and rightfully so.  I also expect a switch 2 next year.  For sure I could be completely wrong.

You can not base any of this on one week in Japan while the Switch is up yoy in several European countries and we know that the OLED is supply constrained. It's pretty rash to make such claims already.