| RolStoppable said: We'll have to wait until late February to determine where Switch's baseline for 2022 is about to settle. Until then it's pretty uneventful. |
I expect a baseline somewhere between 50 - 60k until the Splatoon 3 launch. Below 50k would be a bit diappointing, although we already had a couple of weeks below 50k last year before the OLED model launch.
| curl-6 said: Top 30: Famitsu software sales (1/24/22 - 1/30/22) - Top 30 - Nintendo Everything 1. [NSW] Pokemon Legends: Arceus – 1,424,657 / NEW 11. [NSW] Gunvolt Chronicles: Luminous Avenger iX 2 – 6,460 / NEW NS - 26 PS4 - 3 PS5 - 1 |
A Broccoli published game at #20. I find the publisher's name funny.
Alot of new releases.
| Chrkeller said: So if next year the Switch does 10 million, 50% drop, is that a cliff? I could see 20 million this year, 10 next and 5 after. Puts it around (ballpark) 135 million total. |
A 50% drop is just way too large of a drop without a successor being released. Most people think of how fast the Wii fell off as a major cliff, so let's use that for a better comparison. You can actually see when the Wii U launched (Q3 of FY2013). Before the Wii U launched it was dropping about 25-33%, then it dropped over 50% the year the Wii U launched.
FY2010: 20.54M = 70.93
FY2011: 15.08M = 86.01
FY2012: 9.84M = 95.85
FY2013: 3.99M = 99.84
Rest of life: 1.79M = 101.63
So let's put these to the Switch.
FY2023: 20M = 127
FY2024: 16M = 143*
FY2025: 10M = 153
FY2026: <5M = 157
Rest of life: <2M = 159
Basically, if you think the console can do 20M this year, there is no way it ends up in the 130M range. The Switch would have to start having a Wii like drop this coming fiscal year (meaning this year is no more than 16M) in order for them to be in the 130M range, and, even then, it calculates out to about 139M units. The only way for it to settle at 130-135M units is if Nintendo announces the successor to the Switch this year (preferably sometime in March to lower sales), Switch sells less than 17M units FY2023 (125M), Switch 2 launches March of 2023 and it completely cannibalizes Switch sales like 3DS did with the DS causing Switch to only sell 6M more units lifetime for a total of 131M (DS sold 27M before 3DS was announced, 17.5M the year the 3DS was announced and after 3DS launched it proceeded to sell only 8M more units).
I'm not going to say this is impossible, but given the fact that Nintendo continues to reiterate that Switch is in the middle of it's lifecycle, how high software sales and hardware sales still are, and the fact that one of the largest limiting factors to their decline this year had to do with component shortages and not demand...I'm going to say it's very unlikely. And this is all coming from someone who thinks it's actually unlikely for the Switch to sell much more than 20M this year without a price cut.
*Edit: was 133 instead of 143
Last edited by Doctor_MG - on 04 February 2022
Doctor_MG said:
A 50% drop is just way too large of a drop without a successor being released. Most people think of how fast the Wii fell off as a major cliff, so let's use that for a better comparison. You can actually see when the Wii U launched (Q3 of FY2013). Before the Wii U launched it was dropping about 25-33%, then it dropped over 50% the year the Wii U launched. FY2010 (14th quarter): 20.54M = 70.93 FY2011 (18th quarter): 15.08M = 86.01 FY2012 (22nd quarter): 9.84M = 95.85 FY2013 (26th quarter): 3.99M = 99.84 Rest of life (34 quarters): 1.79M = 101.63 So let's put these to the Switch. FY2023 (25th quarter): 20M = 127 (?) FY2024 (29th quarter): 16M = 133 FY2025 (33rd quarter): 10M = 143 FY2026 (37th quarter): <5M = 147 Rest of life (41 quarters?): <2M = 149 Basically, if you think the console can do 20M this year, there is no way it ends up in the 130M range. The Switch would have to start having a Wii like drop this coming fiscal year (meaning this year is no more than 16M) in order for them to be in the 130M range, and, even then, it calculates out to about 139M units. The only way for it to settle at 130-135M units is if Nintendo announces the successor to the Switch this year (preferably sometime in March to lower sales), Switch sells less than 17M units FY2023 (125M), Switch 2 launches March of 2023 and it completely cannibalizes Switch sales like 3DS did with the DS causing Switch to only sell 6M more units lifetime for a total of 131M (DS sold 27M before 3DS was announced, 17.5M the year the 3DS was announced and after 3DS launched it proceeded to sell only 8M more units). I'm not going to say this is impossible, but given the fact that Nintendo continues to reiterate that Switch is in the middle of it's lifecycle, how high software sales and hardware sales still are, and the fact that one of the largest limiting factors to their decline this year had to do with component shortages and not demand...I'm going to say it's very unlikely. And this is all coming from someone who thinks it's actually unlikely for the Switch to sell much more than 20M this year without a price cut. |
If the Switch follows your projection and sells 150m, then I have to wonder which regions the Switch will sell that much to? I have asked others this same question, but I am willing to have more input.
Your comparison is wrong/confusing. I edited your post for my own clarity. Also FY 2023 ends in 2024, so I assume you meant FY 2022 (which starts in one month) and will treat it as such.
Here is an easier comparison.
NSW end of 20th quarter 103.54m
Wii end of 20th quarter 89.37m (88%)
Using Wii legs and we get 12% more sales to be 117.6m NSW sales.
Nobody expects NSW to do that poorly.
Chrkeller said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but that 85 launch was limited and was only new york. The NES didn't launch across the country till 86. Either way quite a few seem to take my opinion that new hardware is coming in 23 or 24 to heart. Not sure why, does it really matter? The switch islssive success. Nothing is going to change that. |
Not sure about only NY, but yes, you are correct that it was a limited release of the console in 1985 as it was difficult to get retailers here to carry game consoles after the crash of '83.
Regarding Switch hardware, you're completely entitled to your opinion of course, but the drops you expect in sales (from 20m this year to just 10m next) are just unrealistic when you consider the Switch's momentum.
Farsala said:
If the Switch follows your projection and sells 150m, then I have to wonder which regions the Switch will sell that much to? I have asked others this same question, but I am willing to have more input. Your comparison is wrong/confusing. I edited your post for my own clarity. Also FY 2023 ends in 2024, so I assume you meant FY 2022 (which starts in one month) and will treat it as such. Here is an easier comparison. NSW end of 20th quarter 103.54m Wii end of 20th quarter 89.37m (88%) Using Wii legs and we get 12% more sales to be 117.6m NSW sales. Nobody expects NSW to do that poorly. |
Bold: 127mil because it'll be at 107mil at the end of this fiscal year if Nintendo's projection is correct.
Kakadu18 said:
Bold: 127mil because it'll be at 107mil at the end of this fiscal year if Nintendo's projection is correct. |
Then the rest of his projection is off by 10m. So maybe he expects 159m?
| Farsala said: If the Switch follows your projection and sells 150m, then I have to wonder which regions the Switch will sell that much to? I have asked others this same question, but I am willing to have more input. Your comparison is wrong/confusing. I edited your post for my own clarity. Also FY 2023 ends in 2024, so I assume you meant FY 2022 (which starts in one month) and will treat it as such. Here is an easier comparison. NSW end of 20th quarter 103.54m Wii end of 20th quarter 89.37m (88%) Using Wii legs and we get 12% more sales to be 117.6m NSW sales. Nobody expects NSW to do that poorly. |
I'm not sure what's confusing about my post. Also, the fiscal year number is for the year that it ends, not the year that it starts. Currently, we are in FY2022 because it ends March of 2022. Soon we will be in FY2023, which starts April 2022 and ends March of 2023. I hope that clarifies some of the confusion.
The way you are trying to compare the Wii and Switch is after the Wii already had a massive decline. I wouldn't compare quarters to quarters like that because it's clear Switch has a longer life than the Wii. Which is why using the YoY decline instead of comparing the exact same quarter as if they are like for like because they aren't. Wii's peak FY ended March 2009 (less than three years after the console launched). Switch's peak year ended March 2021 (exactly four years after the console launched). In this sense, the FY ending March 2022 for Switch is comparable to the FY ending March 2010 for the Wii (28.83M - 23M vs. 25.95M - 20M).
As it comes to it, I don't think that the Switch will hit 150M. My post is to show how the Switch hitting 20M this year means it couldn't possibly settle at 130M sold. It would be significantly higher than that. I don't think the Switch is going to hit 20M this year, personally. I think the Switch will settle around the 140M-145M. But, of course, this has been adjusted so many times because Switch consistently surprises me. However, if it did sell 150M I think the biggest gain would be in Europe. Europe is a very untapped market for the Switch. In fact, when given a price cut (albeit small) the Switch actually grew YoY in many territories in Europe for this last quarter. It's very possible that the Switch ends up in the top three for sales in NA, JP, and RotW already. In fact, Switch should make top three for RotW and JP this year. So Europe is the untapped territory.
Last edited by Doctor_MG - on 04 February 2022
| Farsala said: Then the rest of his projection is off by 10m. So maybe he expects 159m? |
Your right, I accidentally added only six million instead of sixteen million with FY2024. But that just shows you that even on a significant decline, Switch still has some incredible potential.
But, again, I don't believe it's going to hit 150M. But I think it has a better chance at hitting 150M than 130M at this rate.
Doctor_MG said:
I'm not sure what's confusing about my post. Also, the fiscal year number is for the year that it ends, not the year that it starts. Currently, we are in FY2022 because it ends March of 2022. Soon we will be in FY2023, which starts April 2022 and ends March of 2023. I hope that clarifies some of the confusion. The way you are trying to compare the Wii and Switch is after the Wii already had a massive decline. I wouldn't compare quarters to quarters like that because it's clear Switch has a longer life than the Wii. Which is why using the YoY decline instead of comparing the exact same quarter as if they are like for like because they aren't. Wii's peak FY ended March 2009 (less than three years after the console launched). Switch's peak year ended March 2021 (exactly four years after the console launched). In this sense, the FY ending March 2022 for Switch is comparable to the FY ending March 2010 for the Wii (28.83M - 23M vs. 25.95M - 20M). As it comes to it, I don't think that the Switch will hit 150M. My post is to show how the Switch hitting 20M this year means it couldn't possibly settle at 130M sold. It would be significantly higher than that. I don't think the Switch is going to hit 20M this year, personally. I think the Switch will settle around the 140M-145M. But, of course, this has been adjusted so many times because Switch consistently surprises me. However, if it did sell 150M I think the biggest gain would be in Europe. Europe is a very untapped market for the Switch. In fact, when given a price cut (albeit small) the Switch actually grew YoY in many territories in Europe for this last quarter. It's very possible that the Switch ends up in the top three for sales in NA, JP, and RotW already. In fact, Switch should make top three for RotW and JP this year. So Europe is the untapped territory. |
@bold, That's true, my bad.
@middle, I just disagree with it in principle. NSW won't have better than PS2/ DS legs imo, especially with stock issues being a thing. Also NSW won't have Wii legs. After 30 quarters most consoles are done and have sold 98% of what they will sell. I think it is best to compare NSW to all the consoles at the 20th quarter and then choose where the NSW lies within.
@bottom, Indeed, NSW needs Europe (-14% YoY) to hit extremely high sales, because the NSW won't be able to tap into Japan(-20%)/ America(-24%) like the NDS did. RotW (-29% YoY) did well but appears to be the most volatile.
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