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Farsala on 04 February 2022
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Doctor_MG said:
Farsala said:

If the Switch follows your projection and sells 150m, then I have to wonder which regions the Switch will sell that much to? I have asked others this same question, but I am willing to have more input.

Your comparison is wrong/confusing. I edited your post for my own clarity. Also FY 2023 ends in 2024, so I assume you meant FY 2022 (which starts in one month) and will treat it as such.

Here is an easier comparison.

NSW end of 20th quarter 103.54m

Wii end of 20th quarter 89.37m (88%)

Using Wii legs and we get 12% more sales to be 117.6m NSW sales.

Nobody expects NSW to do that poorly.

I'm not sure what's confusing about my post. Also, the fiscal year number is for the year that it ends, not the year that it starts. Currently, we are in FY2022 because it ends March of 2022. Soon we will be in FY2023, which starts April 2022 and ends March of 2023. I hope that clarifies some of the confusion. 

The way you are trying to compare the Wii and Switch is after the Wii already had a massive decline. I wouldn't compare quarters to quarters like that because it's clear Switch has a longer life than the Wii. Which is why using the YoY decline instead of comparing the exact same quarter as if they are like for like because they aren't. Wii's peak FY ended March 2009 (less than three years after the console launched). Switch's peak year ended March 2021 (exactly four years after the console launched). In this sense, the FY ending March 2022 for Switch is comparable to the FY ending March 2010 for the Wii (28.83M - 23M vs. 25.95M - 20M). 

As it comes to it, I don't think that the Switch will hit 150M. My post is to show how the Switch hitting 20M this year means it couldn't possibly settle at 130M sold. It would be significantly higher than that. I don't think the Switch is going to hit 20M this year, personally. I think the Switch will settle around the 140M-145M. But, of course, this has been adjusted so many times because Switch consistently surprises me. However, if it did sell 150M I think the biggest gain would be in Europe. Europe is a very untapped market for the Switch. In fact, when given a price cut (albeit small) the Switch actually grew YoY in many territories in Europe for this last quarter. It's very possible that the Switch ends up in the top three for sales in NA, JP, and RotW already. In fact, Switch should make top three for RotW and JP this year. So Europe is the untapped territory.  

@bold, That's true, my bad.

@middle, I just disagree with it in principle. NSW won't have better than PS2/ DS legs imo, especially with stock issues being a thing. Also NSW won't have Wii legs. After 30 quarters most consoles are done and have sold 98% of what they will sell. I think it is best to compare NSW to all the consoles at the 20th quarter and then choose where the NSW lies within.

@bottom, Indeed, NSW needs Europe (-14% YoY) to hit extremely high sales, because the NSW won't be able to tap into Japan(-20%)/ America(-24%) like the NDS did. RotW (-29% YoY) did well but appears to be the most volatile.