Doctor_MG said:
A 50% drop is just way too large of a drop without a successor being released. Most people think of how fast the Wii fell off as a major cliff, so let's use that for a better comparison. You can actually see when the Wii U launched (Q3 of FY2013). Before the Wii U launched it was dropping about 25-33%, then it dropped over 50% the year the Wii U launched. FY2010 (14th quarter): 20.54M = 70.93 FY2011 (18th quarter): 15.08M = 86.01 FY2012 (22nd quarter): 9.84M = 95.85 FY2013 (26th quarter): 3.99M = 99.84 Rest of life (34 quarters): 1.79M = 101.63 So let's put these to the Switch. FY2023 (25th quarter): 20M = 127 (?) FY2024 (29th quarter): 16M = 133 FY2025 (33rd quarter): 10M = 143 FY2026 (37th quarter): <5M = 147 Rest of life (41 quarters?): <2M = 149 Basically, if you think the console can do 20M this year, there is no way it ends up in the 130M range. The Switch would have to start having a Wii like drop this coming fiscal year (meaning this year is no more than 16M) in order for them to be in the 130M range, and, even then, it calculates out to about 139M units. The only way for it to settle at 130-135M units is if Nintendo announces the successor to the Switch this year (preferably sometime in March to lower sales), Switch sells less than 17M units FY2023 (125M), Switch 2 launches March of 2023 and it completely cannibalizes Switch sales like 3DS did with the DS causing Switch to only sell 6M more units lifetime for a total of 131M (DS sold 27M before 3DS was announced, 17.5M the year the 3DS was announced and after 3DS launched it proceeded to sell only 8M more units). I'm not going to say this is impossible, but given the fact that Nintendo continues to reiterate that Switch is in the middle of it's lifecycle, how high software sales and hardware sales still are, and the fact that one of the largest limiting factors to their decline this year had to do with component shortages and not demand...I'm going to say it's very unlikely. And this is all coming from someone who thinks it's actually unlikely for the Switch to sell much more than 20M this year without a price cut. | 
