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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 5, 2022 - (24th Jan - 30th Jan)

kenjab on 03 February 2022
Norion said:

I'm not surprised by the hardware boost being much lower compared to the last major Pokemon releases but just under 100k almost 5 years in is still strong and Arceus is doing amazing.

Chrkeller said:

Depends on what you mean by a cliff.  I just think it will cool off and rightfully so.  I also expect a switch 2 next year.  For sure I could be completely wrong.

Think of it this way, the Switch should do around 20m this year so the decline in 2023 and onwards would have to be massive to stop around there. The successor would have to release in Spring next year to make that possible basically.

nvm



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Norion on 03 February 2022
Chrkeller said:
Norion said:

Think of it this way, the Switch should do around 20m this year so the decline in 2023 and onwards would have to be massive to stop around there. The successor would have to release in Spring next year to make that possible basically.

So if next year the Switch does 10 million, 50% drop, is that a cliff?  I could see 20 million this year, 10 next and 5 after.  Puts it around (ballpark) 135 million total.  

I've maintained for a while now that about 140m should be the minimum the Switch reaches so 10 and then 5 is a bit too low to me but that's close enough to 140m that I'll accept the difference. A lot of it will come down to when the successor releases.



Chrkeller on 03 February 2022
Norion said:
Chrkeller said:

So if next year the Switch does 10 million, 50% drop, is that a cliff?  I could see 20 million this year, 10 next and 5 after.  Puts it around (ballpark) 135 million total.  

I've maintained for a while now that about 140m should be the minimum the Switch reaches so 10 and then 5 is a bit too low to me but that's close enough to 140m that I'll accept the difference. A lot of it will come down to when the successor releases.

Agreed 100%.  The Switch 2 is going to decide a lot, especially if it is full BC.  Hopefully I'm not disappointed but I expect full BC with a 2023 launch, 2024 at the latest.  



Chicho on 03 February 2022

XBS X|S is up from last year in Japan.



Mandalore76 on 03 February 2022
Chrkeller said:
SKMBlake said:

Since it's at 103.5 at this point, and still have at least 3 years to go, you think the sales will fall of a cliff ?

Depends on what you mean by a cliff.  I just think it will cool off and rightfully so.  I also expect a switch 2 next year.  For sure I could be completely wrong.

There has been zero indication of this though:

"Switch is just in the middle of its lifecycle and the momentum going into this year is good," said Furukawa. "The Switch is ready to break a pattern of our past consoles that saw momentum weakening in their sixth year on the market and grow further."



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Link_Nines.XBC on 03 February 2022

OMG incredible numbers for Legends Arceus, great to see they're getting rewarded for shaking up the formula.

Last edited by Link_Nines.XBC - on 03 February 2022

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Chrkeller on 03 February 2022
Mandalore76 said:
Chrkeller said:

Depends on what you mean by a cliff.  I just think it will cool off and rightfully so.  I also expect a switch 2 next year.  For sure I could be completely wrong.

There has been zero indication of this though:

"Switch is just in the middle of its lifecycle and the momentum going into this year is good," said Furukawa. "The Switch is ready to break a pattern of our past consoles that saw momentum weakening in their sixth year on the market and grow further."

The Switch is 5 years old.  I personally don't see, per the middle comment, that the Switch will go 10 years without an upgrade of some sort.  Look, I could be wrong.  Don't read my posts as though I have insider information, I'm just going off history.  6-7 years with an upgrade/replacement is standard business.  



Mandalore76 on 03 February 2022
Chrkeller said:
Norion said:

I'm not surprised by the hardware boost being much lower compared to the last major Pokemon releases but just under 100k almost 5 years in is still strong and Arceus is doing amazing.

Think of it this way, the Switch should do around 20m this year so the decline in 2023 and onwards would have to be massive to stop around there. The successor would have to release in Spring next year to make that possible basically.

So if next year the Switch does 10 million, 50% drop, is that a cliff?  I could see 20 million this year, 10 next and 5 after.  Puts it around (ballpark) 135 million total.  

You're expecting a 10 million dropoff in 1 year?  That's worse than any single year Wii decline.



kirby007 on 03 February 2022

Anyone saying there aint supply issues for the switch is fooling themselves



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Mandalore76 on 03 February 2022
Chrkeller said:
Mandalore76 said:

There has been zero indication of this though:

"Switch is just in the middle of its lifecycle and the momentum going into this year is good," said Furukawa. "The Switch is ready to break a pattern of our past consoles that saw momentum weakening in their sixth year on the market and grow further."

The Switch is 5 years old.  I personally don't see, per the middle comment, that the Switch will go 10 years without an upgrade of some sort.  Look, I could be wrong.  Don't read my posts as though I have insider information, I'm just going off history.  6-7 years with an upgrade/replacement is standard business.  

By the way, I appreciate you leaving yourself room to be wrong.  I could be totally wrong as well.  I just think that if Nintendo has new hardware coming out next year, we're passing/passed the tipping point of when so much as a codename should have been stated publicly already.  And the reason I don't see the Switch dropping 10 million sales in one year is because of how much more big title software the Switch has on the horizon than the Wii did near the end.  And the Wii had much more compact drops.