Ok, so it has been 3 years since Nintendo transferred the Prime 4 project to Retro Studios and we haven't even got a trailer.  I am no longer getting my hopes up that this game is still going forward for the following reasons:

1) I keep reading articles about Retro hiring a top engineer here, or a project supervisor, etc.  I have been reading these articles for years now (including a posting for a tools engineer and a technology engineer just this week) and we as fans usually take this to mean something good about Prime 4.  In reality this can mean two things:  1) the studio is expanding and building talent or 2) the studio is losing talent (not a good sign) and is trying to refill the positions.  Given how far into the development cycle we should be for Metroid Prime 4 now, these announcements seem a lot more to me like the latter than the former and so I do not take these announcements as being good news in 2022.

2) Retro has produced nothing since Tropical Freeze on the Wii U.  Back in 2019, I was making excuses for Retro's drought thinking that maybe the studio was being used to support BotW and Odyssey behind the scenes the way that Monolith was rumored to have been.  That excuse no longer holds water.  Retro has had three solid years to focus on Prime 4, there is no way that we shouldn't at least have seen extensive gameplay let alone a trailer at this point.

3) Finally, Dread turned out to be a really amazing 2D Metroid game.  It didn't feel at all like an appetizer for an upcoming AAA 3D entry, it looked and played like a game that is meant to be a main course for Metroid fans on the Switch.  I just don't think that Nintendo would have dedicated this much effort to making Dread the game that it was if Prime 4 was waiting in the waysides.  Nintendo must know that Prime 4 is going sideways and that Retro isn't up the task and so they made sure that Dread would be enough to satiate Metroid fans' appetite.

What are your thoughts?  Am I over-reacting here or is Prime 4 basically dead in terms of being a Switch title?

Reason 3 is incredibly odd. I don't know why Prime 4 coming to Switch would make them want Dread to suck. And while Dread was great it didn't seem like it would be exceptionally resource intensive. It's a modest lengthed 2D game, and it's not huge even by 2D standards. Again, it was great, but not a huge commitment.

For reason number 2, again, Metroid Dread. I believe Mercury Steam starting on it shortly after Samus Returns, but we see anything till at least 3 years into development. The only difference here is that Nintendo jumped the gun and announced Metroid Prime 4 kind of early. But, it's not uncommon for them to work on a game 3 years without releasing anything.

As for reason number one, that's iffy at best. Sometimes Nintendo's studios do that. The division that made Mario Galaxy only worked on sort of minor projects and remakes from Galaxy to I think Odyssey. So, it's not unheard of. I don't know enough to really determine what the hiring stuff means. As the plan was for Namco to do Prime 4, then that would have thrown a wrench into anything else Retro would have been doing, and would somewhat explain a lack of output.

I'm not saying it will definitely come out in the near future or on the Switch, but I don't find your reasons for believing otherwise convincing.

Having waited through N64’s life without a Metroid (or trailer) I have no hope for Metroid Prime 4 on Switch. I was working at NOA headquarters (call center) when it was announced. People around were ecstatic. I love Metroid, but seeing the name on the screen meant nothing to me. We’re almost 5 years later now and that’s still all we got. I hope a group of fans make something for us.

*laughs in Atlus*

Bayonetta 3 took over 4 years without a new trailer. Same goes for SMT V.
They'll show something when they're ready and sure it will launch within a year from that point.

Reason 3 doesn't make any sense.

People should stop panicking when games don't get updates. Not every developer constantly releases new trailers even though the game isn't ready. I'd rather they show the game instead of some CGI trailer like fo often nowadays or some lie campaign like with Cyberpunk 2077.

I think Nintendo is gonna pull one of their famous "show it the same year it releases" moments like Astral Chain, Metroid Dread, Xenoblade 2 and so on. The Switch still has at least two more years to go. I'm absolutely certain Metroid Prime 4 will come at some point.

1) Losing talent isn't necessarily an indication of problems other than pay. As a developer, you could start out as low as $50,000 a year and within 7+ years be at a senior level position making $130000+ a year, and I live in Missouri FYI, lower income state but much better cost of living numbers than places like California that more than make up for it.

2) There were/are other Retro projects being worked on during the same period. At least one major one was cancelled, if I recall. I have said for a while now I wouldn't be surprised if Retro releases two games within a couple years of each other. Also, I suspect many of us underestimated how much of a disaster Bandai Namco's version of MP4 was.

For a while, I figured Retro would just take over an ongoing project and at least find some value in their work, but I no longer think that. I believe MP4 literally started from scratch in 2019, so they've been developing a major AAA game for 3 years. Most major games take 3-5 years to make, most AA 2-3 years.

If Switch 2 comes out in a normal cycle time (which would be sometime in 2023) then I think MP4 will be a launch title made for it. If Switch 2 is pushed back to early or mid 2024, I still think that. If it's pushed back to late 2024 or 2025, I think MP4 will be a Switch 1 game with a port for Switch 2.

At this point, I'm hoping it's a Switch 2 launch title with graphics and innovations that will blow my mind rather than a late Switch title with unimpressive visuals due to the fact that we are already used to what the Switch can pump out. Other series can keep on coming, but certain series in my opinion should be reserved for when Nintendo can blow our minds with visuals, and it's hard to do that late gen but very easy with a new generation and brand new engine.

I mean, after how terrible Pokemon Legends looks.... I just want Prime 4 to release on the next Switch..

At the moment I’m expecting them to show off Metroid Prime 4 towards the end of this year when they should have something to show and a better idea of release window. With people talking about it being a 2023 or later title there doesn’t seem to be much reason to show it off during the first half of this year.

I doubt it will come to the Switch because it doesn't make too much sense at this point.

Unfortunatly the Prime series is stuck in a weird position, on one hand you have a group of loyal and very vocal fans with very high expectation, on the other the low "mass market appeal" the series has demonstrated so far doesn't fully justfy the investment and effort fans are expecting.

Without knowing anytinhg more precise, I would say Nintendo would likely want to renovate the series in order attract a wider audience. So one hand MP4 will need to satisfy fans of the old games, on the other il will need a "wow" factor that will lure you in new players.

The best opportunity to create the "wow" factor is with the launch of a new console. I belive MP4 will be a display title to demostrate the new features and capabilities of the next Nintendo system. That way it would get the spotlight it needs to "relaunch" the series.

On the other hand the rumored Prime 1 remake/remaster may as well be released on the Switch.