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Bayonetta 3 took over 4 years without a new trailer. Same goes for SMT V.
They'll show something when they're ready and sure it will launch within a year from that point.

Reason 3 doesn't make any sense.

People should stop panicking when games don't get updates. Not every developer constantly releases new trailers even though the game isn't ready. I'd rather they show the game instead of some CGI trailer like fo often nowadays or some lie campaign like with Cyberpunk 2077.