I think what's the saddest thing about the whole thing is that Sony could absolutely ship more consoles to Japan.
People like to keep saying "ooh chip shortage" but from what I've heard, the ps5 is selling similar numbers to the switch, yet in the same timeframe the switch sold around 3 times the number of systems in japan

What annoys me the most is that IF japanese customers get bored of waiting for a ps5 and buy something else, sony console war warriors will say "sony was smart to prioritise other regions"
Or IF smaller Japanese developers and publishers start prioritising nintendo/PC those same warriors will claim that they are being anti consumer or nintendo is paying to de-value playstation. When the likely reason is, smaller devs need the money and nintendo is where its at for them.

But using falcom is like cherry picking, a ton of game franchises are not doing that well anymore. Case in point, next week we will get the DW empires 9 sales. It looks like the Ps version sold more than the switch version but even when it is on a userbase of 30 million DW empires 9 seems to be selling less than DW empires 8 that was on PS only.

MH is interesting because where is MH World 2 going to release on?  If it is exclusive for Switch then yeah you are right but what does it say if it skips the Switch?

We have 15 years of data that shows a near stabilisation of Playstation home consoles in software and hardware sold. PS5 is getting the same games, the conclusion is obvious bar the people in this thread who wish it was not.

At the very least, my conclusion is supported by prior data.

Yours is nothing. Its based on incomplete data at best.

News at 11, software declines as consoles get old and new ones have yet to peak. OMG what a discovery.

2006: Nintendo: 44M

2009: Nintendo: 42M

2021: Nintendo: 23M

Oh no look at that decline.

Its going to get even worse for Nintendo on Switch's last year and their new console's first year. Software sales could be <20M in total, their lowest in nearly 20 years, a 50%+ decline.

What Falcom say is near irrelevant. Their games barely sell 1 million. As long as FF, KH, MHW, RE, DMC, SF, Elden Ring etc remain only on Playstation in Japan, no one is worried.

Falcom is just one example the other example has been the top 30 in recent times for example FFVIIR barely sold 1m on PS4 and was hardly a blip on PS5 and this is an anticipated remake of a well liked game meanwhile on the Switch side the likes of Momotaro and Taiko no Tatsujin out sold VIIR on both platforms combined just think about that for a second, Switch versions of games are also outselling PS versions in the region.

It isn't cherry picking it is pointing out what things have come to, you seem to miss the point of MHR you said it's a risk for NS exclusives when that clearly showed otherwise MHW is shared across the other platforms while NS has its own ground up game that other consoles don't have indicated the was more confidence in the game being on a single console. MHW2 will release on XB and PS while NS or its successor will get another ground up game dedicated to it.

People tend to focus too much on Switch as possible alternative to PS. But in reality japanese devs use three alternatives (not all at the same time, or not all devs all three alternatives): PC, mobile and Switch. All big Capcom releases also are on PC. Same with Elden Ring. Square releases on different platforms with each title, but pretty much always also including an PS alternative. You mentioned Star Ocean, that will release on PC as well. I am certain that the same will be true for FF XVI, once the timed exclusivity runs out. Forspoken is already planned for PC. The FF pixel remasters are mobile. You can go through all major japanese titles and find a similar pattern: if it releases on PS5, it also offers an alternative.

Atelier Ryza 2 got a PS5 version, Atelier Sophie 2 isn't getting one. There are third parties who are skipping PS5.

MH World 2 will be on PC/PS5/Xbox Series, then the next one will be on Switch 2. The series will continue to have two concurrent branches, as it has since 2005.

World 2 not being on Switch won't say anything really except that Capcom are continuing the same strategy they've had for some time now, and one that has worked extremely well for them; having their cake and eating it too by tapping the combined userbase of all 4 platforms.

World 2 is not coming anytime soon, maybe 2023 at earliest. By the time World 2 launches will Switch 2 be out?

If I recall correctly it was slated for 2023 in the big Capcom hack leak, but that was pre-covid so possibly by now its been pushed back to 2024. Switch 2 will probably be out around that time, but they might still opt to make a separate MH for it from Ichinose's team if porting World 2 is too difficult, or if exclusivity deals get in the way.

all I know is that if the Switch was a Wii U 2, we likely wouldn’t have seen Atelier Ryza, the Witcher 3, DOOM, MHR, MK11, Disgaea 6 (let alone be Switch exclusive in the West), etc. come to Switch. Now, Japanese developers (especially those who are not AAA) can’t simply go PS and call it a day.

The Switch is a WORLDWIDE hit. That especially includes Japan. Third party sales are rather pretty balanced (on a Nintendo console) with first party sales considering how Nintendo games usually dominate sales on their own consoles. PS4 had all the third party support under the sun but couldn’t even manage to sell 10 million units in Japan while Switch was able to do so easily (with $60 priced games and the OG Switch being $300, which is not usual for a supposed handheld). Now, the PS5 doesn’t even have one title passing 100k units this year. So Japanese devs have to consider the Switch now, which makes sense right?