Sony said they wanted to ship 23m units next fiscal year right? That would be the most a PlayStation system has ever shipped in one year. As long as the chip shortage doesn't have a bad impact on them next year I think their sales are going to be very strong. 18-20m.

Edit: Target for fiscal year ending March 31st 2023 is 22.6m units shipped.

Also, since you seem quite confident, I would like to invite you to increase the size of your bet.  You can see that my category has the largest $ amount.  Are you all talk, or do you really believe what you are saying?

The thing that hardly any other poster even asks is this question, "Where did Switch get all of these customers?"  It's a lot more than Wii U + 3DS combined.  Where did they come from?  Do you know?  Do you even have a reasonable hypothesis?  My explanation is that they switched over from PS4 and XB1.  A lot of these people are not going to switch back.  There are a lot of customers that will accept nothing less than a hybrid console going forward. 

Furthermore X|S is going to be a lot tougher competition than XB1 was.  Microsoft is throwing a lot of money around buying studios, and Gamepass is going to be an attractive offer for some customers.  

Playstation is getting hit from both consoles at once.  We aren't seeing it in first year sales, because the strategies that both Nintendo and Microsoft are using target the middle and bottom tiers of the market.  First year sales are going to go to the upper tier of the market.  That's why we aren't seeing it yet.  

Next year, 2022, will look like stagnation.  It won't look like a cliff.  I mean you say that I'm calling it "a cliff", but I'm actually saying that next year's sales are going to be pretty close to flat compared to this year (either slightly up or slightly down).  I expect a pretty decent drop in 2023 though, but considering 2022 is going to plateau it won't come without warning.

This is just a terrible way of looking at it. Because someone buys a Switch they can't buy a PS5? Nintendo's success does not result in the decline of PlayStation/Xbox.

In 2020: "More than 40% of Switch Owners in USA own a PS4/XBO".

Expecting PS5 to peak at around 14m in 2022 and then begin dropping is incredibly baffling.

But there will be clear evidence in the next few months, sony making their forecast in April 2022 will be a good date.

If they had enough stock, I think selling more than 20mil would be all but guaranteed. But they won’t. Hence, 15-18mil was my vote.

Don’t feed them, you are just wasting your time!