I think the same, they won't be able to make it to 22.6m by the end of this fiscal year, and next fiscal year will be hit too. Though I don't expect them to fall miles short of their target for next fiscal year. they might not be able to ship 22.6m but I think they can ship more than the 17.7m that PS4 managed in the equivalent fiscal year.

March 2022 is going to be interesting when we get Sony's official forecast after weathering this year and knowing the impact on production.

Yeah, I have a feeling that March 2022 will help give us an idea of where production really stands. Currently I think that the PS5 will be under PS4's equivalent FY, but it's predicated on the assumption that multiple products will launch (Nvidia 3000 Super, AMD RX7000, Steam Deck). But if Sony says they are sticking with their 22.6 FY2022 forecast then I'm going to assume I'm wrong. If they adjust down my prediction has a chance. If they adjust up I'll personally apologize to Jim Ryan. 

Could you change the first option to under 15m?  If so, I throw most of my VG money in there.

I'd say 18m. I do think it'll break 20m which PS4 never did, but don't think that'll be as soon as next year. I could see it doing 21/22 million in 2023/2024 at its peak.

SW is predicted 24M. Stock issues and its decline from last year pretty much guarantee its going to around this number.

According to Sony, next year will be the biggest selling year for PS in history. On the other hand, I am personally not sure if the supply situation will  improve significantly next year.

So far. I think it will be 20m to 23m.

24M is for the FY, not for the calendar year. I'm talking calendar year. I'm thinking there will be a bigger Q3 from 2020, but a much lower Q4. 

The OP was kind enough to adjust the first option to 10-15m. I put a decent chunk of $ VG on that one.

Sony - "We want to ship 22.6m next fiscal year"

Lineup - Horizon 2, God of War Ragnarok, Gran Turismo 7, 3 potential 10m+ sellers.

Liquid Laser - "THE CLIFF"

You predicted 10-11.9m for PS5 2021 in January, it will finish about 14m while being completely sold out so could easily have done more. But here we are again with another underestimation.

Good luck!

PS5 2021 is currently 0.5m ahead of PS4 2014 aligned and you said - "No way is PS5 selling better than PS4. I can't believe how many people actually think this will happen."

The only reason it probably won't sell more than PS4 is because of stock.

The thing that hardly any other poster even asks is this question, "Where did Switch get all of these customers?"  It's a lot more than Wii U + 3DS combined.  Where did they come from?  Do you know?  Do you even have a reasonable hypothesis?  My explanation is that they switched over from PS4 and XB1.  A lot of these people are not going to switch back.  There are a lot of customers that will accept nothing less than a hybrid console going forward. 

Furthermore X|S is going to be a lot tougher competition than XB1 was.  Microsoft is throwing a lot of money around buying studios, and Gamepass is going to be an attractive offer for some customers.  

Playstation is getting hit from both consoles at once.  We aren't seeing it in first year sales, because the strategies that both Nintendo and Microsoft are using target the middle and bottom tiers of the market.  First year sales are going to go to the upper tier of the market.  That's why we aren't seeing it yet.  

Next year, 2022, will look like stagnation.  It won't look like a cliff.  I mean you say that I'm calling it "a cliff", but I'm actually saying that next year's sales are going to be pretty close to flat compared to this year (either slightly up or slightly down).  I expect a pretty decent drop in 2023 though, but considering 2022 is going to plateau it won't come without warning.