How many units will Playstation 5 sell in 2022?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Zippy6 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

The OP was kind enough to adjust the first option to 10-15m. I put a decent chunk of $ VG on that one.

Sony - "We want to ship 22.6m next fiscal year"

Lineup - Horizon 2, God of War Ragnarok, Gran Turismo 7, 3 potential 10m+ sellers.

Liquid Laser - "THE CLIFF"

You predicted 10-11.9m for PS5 2021 in January, it will finish 13.5-14m while being completely sold out so could easily have done more. But here we are again with another underestimation.

Good luck!

The thing that hardly any other poster even asks is this question, "Where did Switch get all of these customers?"  It's a lot more than Wii U + 3DS combined.  Where did they come from?  Do you know?  Do you even have a reasonable hypothesis?  My explanation is that they switched over from PS4 and XB1.  A lot of these people are not going to switch back.  There are a lot of customers that will accept nothing less than a hybrid console going forward. 

Furthermore X|S is going to be a lot tougher competition than XB1 was.  Microsoft is throwing a lot of money around buying studios, and Gamepass is going to be an attractive offer for some customers.  

Playstation is getting hit from both consoles at once.  We aren't seeing it in first year sales, because the strategies that both Nintendo and Microsoft are using target the middle and bottom tiers of the market.  First year sales are going to go to the upper tier of the market.  That's why we aren't seeing it yet.  

Next year, 2022, will look like stagnation.  It won't look like a cliff.  I mean you say that I'm calling it "a cliff", but I'm actually saying that next year's sales are going to be pretty close to flat compared to this year (either slightly up or slightly down).  I expect a pretty decent drop in 2023 though, but considering 2022 is going to plateau it won't come without warning.