4.5 million.
Predict Metroid Dread Sales | |||
| 1M or less | 3 | 3.23% | |
| 1M to 2M | 21 | 22.58% | |
| 2M to 3M | 34 | 36.56% | |
| 3M + | 35 | 37.63% | |
| Total: | 93 | ||
| Dulfite said: For those complaining about prices, it's important to look at inflation |
Comparing it to prices 30 years go doesn't really make sense. Nobody is trying to decide between buying Dread at $60 or buying a game at $120.
A far better comparison would be to compare it to the price of similar games today. Metroidvania games typically run $15-$25. Most of them are lower production value than Dread will be, but not all of them. When you put Dread up to today's competition it is pretty clear Dread should't cost more than $40, and that's including giving a Nintendo premium to Dread's pricing.
Machina said:
They're not out of date at all, you just don't have the 'Total Shipped' box ticked. Here. |
Thanks for clarifying. However the data for Total Sold feels odd as shouldn't the total sold be close to total shipped?
The reason being if you look at Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Total Shipped vs Total Sold is a huge difference we talking almost 20 million in difference
haxxiy said:
This is all true, but it should be self-evident that the market wasn't going to always have the same return on investment it once had, especially when said investment consisted mostly on churning out short arcade titles with artificial difficulty so kids wouldn't beat it in half an hour. I'd say Super Metroid itself was already an example, back in the early-to-mid-nineties, of a game that increased in quality and length (and development costs) in order to stand out as the market became more saturated and demanding. I think when the arcade-like Saturn died while the PlayStation became dominant with the first "AAA" games such as FFVII etc. that kind of proved that was no going back to the early golden days of low-hanging fruits. And that, as we know, was the absolute norm until development tools and distribution costs fell enough for indie games to become a relevant thing, but you still can't build a platform around it. On the flip side the market is much larger, so it's not all that bad. |
Market size doesn't matter if the sales for those series aren't going up at least proportionally to inflation and cost of development. 4 million sales in 1994 != 4 million sales in 2021 in revenue and profit.
I think it will sell about 2m. The Switch's popularity will help its sales, but it's still not going to outsell the original.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
Switch has a knack at breaking sales records of their games, so my guess is ~4.5M when all is said and done.
The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing
The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/
Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/
Cobretti2 said:
Thanks for clarifying. However the data for Total Sold feels odd as shouldn't the total sold be close to total shipped? |
The last update for sold for MK8DX was November 2018. So that number is just outdated.


Slownenberg said:
Comparing it to prices 30 years go doesn't really make sense. Nobody is trying to decide between buying Dread at $60 or buying a game at $120. A far better comparison would be to compare it to the price of similar games today. Metroidvania games typically run $15-$25. Most of them are lower production value than Dread will be, but not all of them. When you put Dread up to today's competition it is pretty clear Dread should't cost more than $40, and that's including giving a Nintendo premium to Dread's pricing. |
This isn't some indie Metroidvania though, this is the grandfather of the genre, made by a studio of 160 people over 4 years with the backing and collaboration of Nintendo themselves, and an eagerly desired game people have been waiting 19 years for, finally come to fruition. I'd say $60 is well justified.
Last edited by curl-6 - on 20 June 2021The title makes for some excellent puns.
made some dumb #Metroid Dread puns in Photoshop, enjoy pic.twitter.com/3ZNyxwfce3
— Fighter_Builder (@Fighter_Builder) June 18, 2021
Dulfite said:
Market size doesn't matter if the sales for those series aren't going up at least proportionally to inflation and cost of development. 4 million sales in 1994 != 4 million sales in 2021 in revenue and profit. |
Yes, but then the blame lies on the game, or perhaps the marketing, not the market itself.
4 million back then was absolutely huge for a non-bundled game, nowadays there are tens of franchises that can achieve such sales.