I think we are still not at baseline. At least on Amazon JP the regular Switch is still marked up by about a third and limited in stock. I think that the demand for the regular switch has increased over time relative to the Lite. There have been a couple of weeks where the split has been 1:4 or even a little larger. This could in theory be the actual baseline split.

Alrighty, so even at around the 90-100k range we're still not at the point where the hybrid is plentiful enough to meet demand. Impressive.

Top 3 Nintendo Switch Games

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) - 6.790.053
2. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) - 4.299.265
3. Pokemon Sword / Shield + EP (Pokemon Co) - 4.256.378

TOTAL: 15.345.696

Third Party Switch Top 50

1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.245.384
2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 2.213.705 
3. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.983.567 
4. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 662.313
5. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 595.771 
6. Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco) - 585.608  
7. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate* (Capcom) - 379.611
8. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 376.481
9. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
10. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 354.983 
11. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 297.187 
12. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 295.237 
13. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) - 281.140
14. Super Bomberman R3 (Konami) - 275.029 
15. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 248.024
16. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
17. Octopath Traveller (Square Enix) - 193.780
18. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 185.990
19. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
20. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 164.944
21. Puyo Puyo S (Sega) - 154.573
22. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 153.015 
23. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 150.434 
24. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco) - 145.720 
25. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 141.889 
26. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513 
27. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) - 134.858
28. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998 
29. Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 122.203 
30. Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 121.740 
31. Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 114.931
32. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277
33. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco) - 112.104
34. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (Bandai Namco) - 110.954
35. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
36. Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 106.920
37. Fortnite (Warner) - 103.130
38. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 97.056
39. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai Namco) - 92.697
40. FIFA 19 (EA) - 89.875
41. Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 89.215
42. Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 87.370
43. Sumikko Gurashi (Nippon Columbia) - 84.957 
44. Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) - 80.842
45. Attack on Titan 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 80.471
46. Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 79.250
47. Dragon Quest Builders (Square Enix) - 74.772
48. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
49. Shin Megami Tensei III (Atlus) - 68.280
50. Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco) - 64.948

TOTAL: 15.309.396

Top Publishers:

1. Konami - 3.033.945
2. Capcom - 2.624.995
3. Bandai Namco - 2.180.043
4. Microsoft - 2.098.498
5. Square Enix - 1.473.237
6. Other - 1.036.698
7. Sega - 804.695
8. Marvelous - 718.721
9. Level 5 - 468.311
10. Koei Tecmo - 435.454
11. Imagineer - 248.809

In the past nine months third parties have achieved over 7 million sales, with Momotaro and Monster Hunter Rise being the big drivers but Marvelous & Koei Tecmo both achieved their best selling games on the Switch in the same period. 

I actually thought that Capcom would claim the top spot with Rise but Momotaro was such a break out hit, that Konami will probably retain the Top Third Party publisher even as 2021 draws to a close. With Baseball Spirits & Yu-gi-oh launching next quarter it's very likely that they will manage to surpass 4 million sales by the end of September. There is also a good opportunity to launch a multiplat Winning Eleven game in the fall to close in to 5 million

Capcom will make up a lot of ground this year thought, Rise should end up around 3.5 million there is also Monster Hunter Stories 2 and Ace Attorney Chronicles which should give them a chance to come close to 4.5 million end of year with the leaked Resident Evil game launching before the end of Q1 2022.

Square should catch up to Microsoft & Bandai if Dragon Quest III Remake launches this year. The game has a potential to surpass 1 million on the Switch fairly easily.

Marvelous will be hoping to surpass 1 million on the Switch, but they've made a big mess out of Olive Town and Rune Factory 5 launches. Seems they are prioritizing growth overseas as Rune Factory 5 is going to launch next year when much of the launch issues have been addressed. Sakuna with digital is already beyond 600K in Japan across the Switch/PS4 without discounts, it's looking like it should surpass 250K physical this year on the Switch - long term it might end up the first game from them to surpass 1 million units with some digital and retail discounts which should probably happen in 2022.

There is a lot of third party games launching in the next few months.

The big question mark for me remains the Switch Pro, launching ports of games that haven't made it to the Switch can be a successful strategy for them to see further growth in the fall. 

By the end of the year we might be looking at 25 million across the Top 50, heading into next year which I think will be the software peak for the Switch. 

Switch back to ∼100k, nice.

Actually pretty good legs for this one, most non-Pokemon JRPGs tend to fall into oblivion after a few weeks (DQ is huge but even those don't tend to last this long in the top 30).

Switch Lite sales are almost identical to the previous week so the rise of 26k came almost entirely from extra stock of the hybrid becoming available, it would seem.

The 20m mark has been passed for NSW.

So Square's showcase was a bit of a shit show... so far I don't see any new reveal during E3 that will cause waves in Japan

Momotaro Dentetsu passes 3 million units sold in Japan, including digital. With Famitsu reporting a bit over 2.2 million physical, that puts it at about a 25% digital share.

So Momotaro joins the elite list of third-party games to surpass 3 million copies in Japan.

In the last decade, this list basically includes Minecraft on the Switch(with digital), Monster Hunter, and Yo-Kai Watch

Just to put things into perspective Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy haven't achieved this feat on a single SKU in the past decade 

I know this is from Atlus, but SMT V just got a November release date.  Do you have numbers on how much does SMT and/or Persona usually sell in Japan?  (or anyone really have numbers on this?)