1. Phil Spencer downplayed the significance of hardware sales.

2. Series S has been widely available in parts of Europe and Australia despite the limited production (Series X on the other hand tends to sell out within minutes). This doesn't bode well at all for its future in these regions.

3. The hardware isn't a great value compared to Series X, PS5/5DE, and soon Switch Pro. These consoles in addition to the standard Switch, Switch Lite, and PC, will completely overshadow it.

4. Aggressive Xbox ONE pricing (+ Game Pass!) barely helped it remain somewhat competitive in its best region; the US. Why would the Series S be any better? Hardware wise, PS5DE is a far better deal (MUCH bigger gap than X1S vs PS4). If Sony manages to manufacture a decent amount of them, MS is gonna have to undercut them by $150 if they REALLY want to compete.

5. DLSS is a game changer. Assuming Switch Pro supports it, it wouldn't surprise me if it's capable of somewhat comparable performance at just $50 more (I'm expecting slightly higher resolutions, but lower fps and settings). The Series S is underpowered right out of the gate, but Tensor Core and AMD's future equivalent are about to make things worse. "Super Resolution" alone won't cut it; as far as I know, the hardware itself is the problem. Series X and PS5 can reduce the damage of lacking a proper DLSS equivalent with brute force. Series S has nothing and will age like milk! I'd be shocked if MS continued to support it throughout the generation like they promised.

Playstation's momentum and 1st party growth constantly get underestimated. Microsoft is taking too long to respond meaningfully, which will cost them. Xbox Studios expansion won't necessarily sell too many Xbox consoles if the PS5 install base entices Microsoft to release games on it. What MS decides to do with Bethesda will be vital to hardware sales. If they make them exclusive (disregarding the active PS5 userbase and the potential decline in software sales), the Series XS may reach or exceed the high end of my prediction. If they don't, I honestly just don't see it getting there!

I'll bump this thread in a year or two if VGC and myself are still around.

1. Phil Spencer downplayed the significance of hardware sales.

2. Series S has been widely available in parts of Europe and Australia despite the limited production (Series X on the other hand tends to sell out within minutes). This doesn't bode well at all for its future in these regions.

3. The hardware isn't a great value compared to Series X, PS5/5DE, and soon Switch Pro. These consoles in addition to the standard Switch, Switch Lite, and PC, will completely overshadow it.

4. Aggressive Xbox ONE pricing (+ Game Pass!) barely helped it remain somewhat competitive in its best region; the US. Why would the Series S be any better? Hardware wise, PS5DE is a far better deal (MUCH bigger gap than X1S vs PS4). If Sony manages to manufacture a decent amount of them, MS is gonna have to undercut them by $150 if they REALLY want to compete.

5. DLSS is a game changer. Assuming Switch Pro supports it, it wouldn't surprise me if it's capable of somewhat comparable performance at just $50 more (I'm expecting slightly higher resolutions, but lower fps and settings). The Series S is underpowered right out of the gate, but Tensor Core and AMD's future equivalent are about to make things worse. "Super Resolution" alone won't cut it; as far as I know, the hardware itself is the problem. Series X and PS5 can reduce the damage of lacking a proper DLSS equivalent with brute force. Series S has nothing and will age like milk! I'd be shocked if MS continued to support it throughout the generation like they promised.

Playstation's momentum and 1st party growth constantly get underestimated. Microsoft is taking too long to respond meaningfully, which will cost them. Xbox Studios expansion won't necessarily sell too many Xbox consoles if the PS5 install base entices Microsoft to release games on it. What MS decides to do with Bethesda will be vital to hardware sales. If they make them exclusive (disregarding the active PS5 userbase and the potential decline in software sales), the Series XS may reach or exceed the high end of my prediction. If they don't, I honestly just don't see it getting there!

I'll bump this thread in a year or two if VGC and myself are still around.

Xbox Series X|S sales in Europe:

Europe with UK: 1,414,984

UK: 557,942

Europe without UK: 857,042

I'm still not entirely sure that Bethesda's future games will even be console exclusives, I'm expecting stuff like the next Elder Scrolls, Doom, etc to be timed exclusives on Xbox so folks will just wait for them to hit PS5.

"Xbox isn't going to stop supporting the Series S and there is zero evidence-"

An underpowered console's support is decided by its sales. Microsoft won't blindly support the Series S if the sales are weak in comparison to the much more expensive model. They will be inclined to drop/replace it (as a mandatory extension) otherwise it would hold back the Series X and eventually the MidGen upgrade(s) for little to no return. They can't allow Sony to keep destroying them with visual and technical juggernauts.

"The parts I highlighted are irrelevant to-"

It's already struggling to sell the small amount of stock they have available in the regions I mentioned, because the demand just isn't high. PS5 at roughly 4X more stock (likely much more but I'm assuming the XS split is 50/50) and $100-200 higher pricetag is selling out near instantly everywhere. The difference in demand is staggering.

"Using the past generation as a measuring stick is irrelevant-"

The "disastrous reveal" had a minimal impact on the average consumer buying a product in 2017-2019 when Xbox ONE S was still struggling despite Game Pass, backwards compatibility hype, consumer-friendliness!!!, and the aggressive prices. It's clear MS hasn't done enough to slow down Playstation's momentum, which may or may not cause them to lose more potential consumers than they will gain.

The Series XS is actually doing a few things worse that forum dwellers overlook or forget about. The X1 had a notably stronger first year lineup than PS4 and Series XS. It was fairly packed with great looking new true exclusives, platform exclusives, and well received games. Series XS has one mediocre timed exclusive, some ports, and the Craig demo disaster. Whereas PS5 is doing everything better than PS4 barring the whole "consumer friendly" thing and price advantage (though they do have the price advantage over Series X) which both get oversold by a lot of people (Perceived value >>> Price).

"Playstation is definitely not underestimated in any regard lol-"

Yes it is. And I've already said I don't trust Microsoft's word. The market will influence Microsoft's, Sony's, and Nintendo's decisions. Not everything they claim or promise early in a generation is set in stone; you're being naive. The larger the install base disparity by the time Bethesda deliver their games, the less likely it is for MS to ignore it. It's anyone's guess, but completely denying that possibility is ridiculous. My bet is some will be exclusive and others timed-exclusive.