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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox Series X|S Lifetime Sales Predictions

 

How well do you think Xbox Series X|S will sell lifetime?

Under 25 million 2 3.13%
 
25-50 million 11 17.19%
 
50-75 million 38 59.38%
 
75-100 million 11 17.19%
 
100+ million 2 3.13%
 
Total:64
Kyuu said:
holzi said:

Why would they stop supporting Series S? They likely already sold millions of it and it leads to them having the cheapest 'next gen' console on the market which makes it an enticing option for parents, people who mostly play the yearly FIFA/Madden/COD and everyone with a tight budget. Also there is practically no technical reason to not continue scaling down the resolution down a bit and simply releasing the game on Series S.

You yourself said that Series X should sell well once first party output starts. Xbox One never sold well and still managed to sell 50 million consoles. In general I don't get how it should manage to sell less than One except if the console space starts to shrink in the near future in general. And nobody is predicting that right now. 

1. Phil Spencer downplayed the significance of hardware sales.

2. Series S has been widely available in parts of Europe and Australia despite the limited production (Series X on the other hand tends to sell out within minutes). This doesn't bode well at all for its future in these regions.

3. The hardware isn't a great value compared to Series X, PS5/5DE, and soon Switch Pro. These consoles in addition to the standard Switch, Switch Lite, and PC, will completely overshadow it.

4. Aggressive Xbox ONE pricing (+ Game Pass!) barely helped it remain somewhat competitive in its best region; the US. Why would the Series S be any better? Hardware wise, PS5DE is a far better deal (MUCH bigger gap than X1S vs PS4). If Sony manages to manufacture a decent amount of them, MS is gonna have to undercut them by $150 if they REALLY want to compete.

5. DLSS is a game changer. Assuming Switch Pro supports it, it wouldn't surprise me if it's capable of somewhat comparable performance at just $50 more (I'm expecting slightly higher resolutions, but lower fps and settings). The Series S is underpowered right out of the gate, but Tensor Core and AMD's future equivalent are about to make things worse. "Super Resolution" alone won't cut it; as far as I know, the hardware itself is the problem. Series X and PS5 can reduce the damage of lacking a proper DLSS equivalent with brute force. Series S has nothing and will age like milk! I'd be shocked if MS continued to support it throughout the generation like they promised.

Playstation's momentum and 1st party growth constantly get underestimated. Microsoft is taking too long to respond meaningfully, which will cost them. Xbox Studios expansion won't necessarily sell too many Xbox consoles if the PS5 install base entices Microsoft to release games on it. What MS decides to do with Bethesda will be vital to hardware sales. If they make them exclusive (disregarding the active PS5 userbase and the potential decline in software sales), the Series XS may reach or exceed the high end of my prediction. If they don't, I honestly just don't see it getting there!

I'll bump this thread in a year or two if VGC and myself are still around.

Ok, let me see if I understand this correctly. So you're saying that Microsoft will stop releasing games for one of its consoles (Series S) and will opt to keep releasing games for the PS5 instead...  hmm... that's... an interesting line of thought.

And also, you first say "Phil Spencer downplayed the significance of hardware sales," and then you say "I don't trust Microsoft's word" so I'm confused, which one is it? Do you trust Phil's words nor not?



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Based on momentum and delivery on promises, both brands (PS5 and XSX) Are going to hit similar numbers to their predecessor. Based on that, Xbox will likely hover around 50 million unless they turn things around and actually start pumpin' out games.



My Console Library:

PS5, Switch, XSX

PS4, PS3, PS2, PS1, WiiU, Wii, GCN, N64 SNES, XBO, 360

3DS, DS, GBA, Vita, PSP, Android

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

It seems to be a big difference between Xbox optimists and pessimists, and optimists seem to be homogeneous people who accept the claims of the gaming media (many of them prefer xbox Brand the most).
Pessimists are very unique.
Each person has a different opinion because they think for themself.

Actually almost every prediction seems to fall around 50-70m, what claims by the media are you saying people are accepting? You saying only negative people are thinking for themselves, which is quite funny.



I'd be interested in hearing the reasoning from the four who voted either "Over 100 million" or "less than 25 million" as both are very bold claims.