Kyuu said:
1. Phil Spencer downplayed the significance of hardware sales. 2. Series S has been widely available in parts of Europe and Australia despite the limited production (Series X on the other hand tends to sell out within minutes). This doesn't bode well at all for its future in these regions. 3. The hardware isn't a great value compared to Series X, PS5/5DE, and soon Switch Pro. These consoles in addition to the standard Switch, Switch Lite, and PC, will completely overshadow it. 4. Aggressive Xbox ONE pricing (+ Game Pass!) barely helped it remain somewhat competitive in its best region; the US. Why would the Series S be any better? Hardware wise, PS5DE is a far better deal (MUCH bigger gap than X1S vs PS4). If Sony manages to manufacture a decent amount of them, MS is gonna have to undercut them by $150 if they REALLY want to compete. 5. DLSS is a game changer. Assuming Switch Pro supports it, it wouldn't surprise me if it's capable of somewhat comparable performance at just $50 more (I'm expecting slightly higher resolutions, but lower fps and settings). The Series S is underpowered right out of the gate, but Tensor Core and AMD's future equivalent are about to make things worse. "Super Resolution" alone won't cut it; as far as I know, the hardware itself is the problem. Series X and PS5 can reduce the damage of lacking a proper DLSS equivalent with brute force. Series S has nothing and will age like milk! I'd be shocked if MS continued to support it throughout the generation like they promised. Playstation's momentum and 1st party growth constantly get underestimated. Microsoft is taking too long to respond meaningfully, which will cost them. Xbox Studios expansion won't necessarily sell too many Xbox consoles if the PS5 install base entices Microsoft to release games on it. What MS decides to do with Bethesda will be vital to hardware sales. If they make them exclusive (disregarding the active PS5 userbase and the potential decline in software sales), the Series XS may reach or exceed the high end of my prediction. If they don't, I honestly just don't see it getting there! I'll bump this thread in a year or two if VGC and myself are still around. |
Xbox isn't going to stop supporting the Series S and there is zero evidence to back that claim up.
The parts I highlighted are irrelevant to the general public when deciding on what console to buy, and the Series S was not designed for the enthusiast such as those on a video game forum who care about those things. As long as it's getting the same games and services as the Series X, then people will buy it. It's funny, the reactions I've seen from those who actually own a Series S have been overwhelmingly positive regardless of it being less powerful.
Using the past generation as a measuring stick is irrelevant. To humor your point though, The X1 fate was sealed after it's disasters reveal and bad press early on. Not much was going to possibly remedy the issue except if it got excellent exclusives throughout it's generation, which it didn't. The Series X|S has way more going for it now than the X1 ever did, and a service like Game Pass that launched late in the gen wasn't going to fix it.
Playstation is definitely not underestimated in any regard lol. The fact you still believe there is a possibility for Bethesda games(besides those with contractual obligations) will still come to Ps5, shows you have no idea. They already commented on this so it's time to leave this idea behind.
Regarding the main topic, I picked 50-75M. Seems like a safe bet for the Series X|S to at least outsell the X1. My estimation is 65-85M.
