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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

 

Will Switch outsell PS2 and/or DS?

Yes, it will outsell PS2's (~159Million) 99 57.23%
 
Will outsell the DS, but not the PS2 74 42.77%
 
Switch will fall short of both DS & PS2 0 0%
 
Total:173
JWeinCom said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The Switch literally has all of the advantages you mentioned.

"As it was declining in the major markets, a lot of new markets were opening it."
The Switch is doing a lot better in RoW than any previous Nintendo console.  It is reaching new markets.

"It also was so dominant during its gen that developers kept supporting it for quite a while after its launch."
Third party support keeps increasing for the Switch.  Third party support for Switch in 2021 will be far better than every year before it, and 2022 will likely be better than that.  That is because 1) handheld developers are taking a long time and 2) home developers took a couple of years to take the Switch seriously.  On the handheld side we are just now getting successors to several 3DS titles (Monster Hunter, Bravely Default, Rune Factory, ect...), because Switch is a lot more powerful than 3DS.  These handheld developers are adjusting to the big bump in power.  Home console developers didn't want to back another Wii U, but it's very obvious at this point that Switch is going to have a huge install base.  New games usually take about 3-4 years to develop.  Up until now Switch mostly got ports, but we are actually getting to the point where Switch is getting its first wave of original 3rd party games.  Expect later waves to be even bigger than the first wave, because that is how it is on every successful console.

"Also, Sony wanted to keep pushing the PS2 after the PS3 was released"
Nintendo supported the 3DS for two years after the Switch released.  If they will do that for a system that sold about 76m, then how much longer will they support a system that will sell about twice that amount (or more)?

On top of that Switch has even more advantages over the PS2:
-Switch is currently tracking ahead of the PS2.
-Switch has still not had a price cut.  PS2 had several price cuts by this point.
-Switch is selling to both home and handheld markets.
-Nintendo are pros at selling multiple handheld systems to the same household.
-Switch has several evergreens that have already outsold the top selling PS2 game and will likely get more.

And, Nintendo has a history of not supporting their systems very well as a new one is coming out. They didn't do much for the Wii after Skyward Sword. Aside from Pokemon, they cut support from the 3DS pretty quickly as well, despite it being a massive success. Unless they change course, I wouldn't expect to see the Switch being pushed hard.

Switch is tracking ahead, but I'm pretty sure that the same could have been said for the PS4. The PS2 sold about 1/3 of its units after the PS3 came out, and that kind of thing hasn't been seen since. The Switch would probably need about 120-130 million or so before a successor is released to have a chance. It's possible, but iffy.


NSW shouldn’t get treated as past system. Things are so different, as well as the sales curve never seen before. It’s also Nintendo only system and there most successful one so I doubt they will replace it anytime soon. Add to the fact COVID19 literally pushed things back even further and bam! Lol

Going by your 120-130mil comment before a successor.... let me tell you something. 

So we this >>> 2017-2020 79.8mil

I’ll be nice to you and make it a bit pessimistic with a new rumored model coming out...


2021: 24mil (NSW pro launch)

2022: 16mil (-30%+ YoY) and these release...Splat3/PokeLegends/etc

By end of next year, NSW will be at 120mil ltd, coming off a 17mil year......

now let me give you the tbone edition 

2021: 28mil (NSW pro)

2022: 22mil 

2023: 16mil

Thats 146mil coming off a 16mil year ? 

.....



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no chance in hell.



tbone51 said:
JWeinCom said:

And, Nintendo has a history of not supporting their systems very well as a new one is coming out. They didn't do much for the Wii after Skyward Sword. Aside from Pokemon, they cut support from the 3DS pretty quickly as well, despite it being a massive success. Unless they change course, I wouldn't expect to see the Switch being pushed hard.

Switch is tracking ahead, but I'm pretty sure that the same could have been said for the PS4. The PS2 sold about 1/3 of its units after the PS3 came out, and that kind of thing hasn't been seen since. The Switch would probably need about 120-130 million or so before a successor is released to have a chance. It's possible, but iffy.


NSW shouldn’t get treated as past system. Things are so different, as well as the sales curve never seen before. It’s also Nintendo only system and there most successful one so I doubt they will replace it anytime soon. Add to the fact COVID19 literally pushed things back even further and bam! Lol

Going by your 120-130mil comment before a successor.... let me tell you something. 

So we this >>> 2017-2020 79.8mil

I’ll be nice to you and make it a bit pessimistic with a new rumored model coming out...


2021: 24mil (NSW pro launch)

2022: 16mil (-30%+ YoY) and these release...Splat3/PokeLegends/etc

By end of next year, NSW will be at 120mil ltd, coming off a 17mil year......

now let me give you the tbone edition 

2021: 28mil (NSW pro)

2022: 22mil 

2023: 16mil

Thats 146mil coming off a 16mil year 😉 

.....

If you take the pessimistic view with 120 at the end of 2022, and a successor comes out in 2023, then hitting PS2's numbers would be iffy. 

20 million+ in 2022 is shaky. Based on the current Switch I don't see it. Really depends on if there's a new model and what it offers. If it's something like a New 3DS that does what the Switch does now only better, probably not. If it's something that significantly broadens the market than maybe. 



It depends entirely on factors that are very difficult to predict.

1. Coronavirus- How long will it continue? When will people spend more on movies, restaurants, concerts etc again?

2. Nintendo- Does Nintendo want to release/ annnounce their next console in 2023 or 2024 or other? Do they want to release games past 2023? Do they want to price cut? Theoretically Nintendo could price cut the Switch to $99 and that would be 160m sales easy.

3. Competition- Does Sony want to price cut the PS5 or go for profit? Will GTA VI or other significant games release? Will MS buy Nintendo?



Manlytears said:

no chance in hell.

Damn, what info do you have that everyone else is missing? I'm not confident either way, but you must have knowledge that everyone else doesn't.



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SKMBlake said:
Illusion said:

Yeah, but if the Switch Pro is DLSS with a 4K screen, this won't be like the DS to DSL or 3DS to New 3DS.  This will be like a new console generation and Nintendo is going to want to push people to the newer model since the games getting released for the Switch Pro (e.g. BotW2) are going to look really ugly on the old Switch assuming that there even will be backwards compatibility.  Maybe the rumors are wrong and the new Switch is not a major hardware upgrade, in which case I will say that you are right.  But if the hardware is being overhauled the way that we are hearing, then Nintendo is going to want to push people to the new platform. 

The Xbox One X was like 6x more powerful than the Xbox One S but they were both still in the same generation, so not necessarily.

Though the X:s Cpu was so close to the S that it was still anemic.



Farsala said:

It depends entirely on factors that are very difficult to predict.

1. Coronavirus- How long will it continue? When will people spend more on movies, restaurants, concerts etc again?

2. Nintendo- Does Nintendo want to release/ annnounce their next console in 2023 or 2024 or other? Do they want to release games past 2023? Do they want to price cut? Theoretically Nintendo could price cut the Switch to $99 and that would be 160m sales easy.

3. Competition- Does Sony want to price cut the PS5 or go for profit? Will GTA VI or other significant games release? Will MS buy Nintendo?

Shoot, I didn't think about that. When you consider everything that's going on Microsoft could actually be trying to merge with Nintendo. Keyword merge. I'm sure if Nintendo would be bought they'd wanna have their name in the new company that would actually be beneficial for Microsoft too. The new company would be called Microsoft-Nintendo. I don't think this merger would go through with authorities though. It would be too powerful in the Videogame space. Now a partnership where Nintendo games Come to Xbox/Pc and Xbox games to Nintendo. That would be something I'd like to see. Imagine Botw 2 on Pc with Rtx on+hdr that would actually get me to upgrade my Graphics card as soon as possible.



I don't get the "the PS2 managed to keep selling after the release of the new generation" what do you think Nintendo is doing here ?
The PS5 and Xbox are now launching the new generation, but the Switch is selling like crazy



Noo,prob not. Not only whas ps2 @99 dollar/euro. Its domminace was unmatched.
It whas insanely popular.

However.

If.

If...there is one system out there who deserves it.
Its the switch.



 

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http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

xl-klaudkil said:

Noo,prob not. Not only whas ps2 @99 dollar/euro. Its domminace was unmatched.
It whas insanely popular.

However.

If.

If...there is one system out there who deserves it.
Its the switch.

I miss the days when a console could be below 100€. Maybe something akin to a Vita TV could reach that price, but considering they'd have to add a pro controller or a pair of joycons, I don't see it happening.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.