Missed this one because I had my prior reply sitting unfinished since yesterday afternoon.

The Switch is not outselling the DS's best year, either globally or any specific region. And we need to look at things on a region-by-region basis.

In the U.S., the Switch did have a strong lead over the DS initially, but that's because the DS had a slow start. The Switch's lead over it has been declining since 2019, and has since turned into a deficit. The DS leads now in the U.S., and that lead will grow. There's no way in hell the Switch is going to be able to sell what it needs to sell to regain the lead over the next two years. The DS sold 19.75M units in the U.S. between 2011 and 2012. The Switch will need to keep going at 2020 levels for at least two more years just to avoid growing its deficit against the DS. Realistically, it's going to be running a deficit against the DS of over 3M units by the end of this year, and that's not including the DS's launch holiday (I'm just counting the DS's 2005-2009 in relation to the Switch's 2017-2021). That deficit is almost certainly going to grow even more next year, considering the DS sold 8.56M in 2011, nearly as much as the Switch did last year, probably more than it'll sell this year, and undoubtedly more than it'll sell next year (do you really expect three consecutive years of 8-9M units?). The only chance the Switch has of matching the DS in the U.S. is if its sales in 2023 and later are close to double what the DS's were in 2012 & later. That's not going to happen unless the Switch's successor doesn't come out until late 2025 or 2026.

In Japan, the DS peaked earlier than in the U.S., but what a peak it was. It sold 15.8M in the 2007-08 period, by far the best two-year period of any system ever in Japan. Like, nothing else was even close. The DS currently has a very significant lead over the Switch (and that's again not counting the DS's 2004 sales). The Switch will need to sell at least another 13.5M units in Japan just to tie the DS. That's actually possible, and the Switch's best odds of beating the DS in any one region is definitely Japan. But if it starts to slow down any next year, those odds diminish greatly.

In Europe, well, good God man, just look at the numbers. The Switch isn't even in the same league sales-wise as the DS was.

And if you think the Switch would be selling as well as it has over the past year without the pandemic, then you haven't been paying attention. Since at least this past summer, I've spent considerable time and effort in other threads going over this subject, with more than ample data to back up my arguments. I will not reiterate myself here, I will not argue over this subject anymore, and I'm just going to start ignoring people that simply object for the sake of objecting (i.e., not providing any backing evidence). If people can't deal with the facts, that's their problem, not mine.

Missed this one because I had my prior reply sitting unfinished since yesterday afternoon.

The Switch is not outselling the DS's best year, either globally or any specific region. And we need to look at things on a region-by-region basis.

In the U.S., the Switch did have a strong lead over the DS initially, but that's because the DS had a slow start. The Switch's lead over it has been declining since 2019, and has since turned into a deficit. The DS leads now in the U.S., and that lead will grow. There's no way in hell the Switch is going to be able to sell what it needs to sell to regain the lead over the next two years. The DS sold 19.75M units in the U.S. between 2011 and 2012. The Switch will need to keep going at 2020 levels for at least two more years just to avoid growing its deficit against the DS. Realistically, it's going to be running a deficit against the DS of over 3M units by the end of this year, and that's not including the DS's launch holiday (I'm just counting the DS's 2005-2009 in relation to the Switch's 2017-2021). That deficit is almost certainly going to grow even more next year, considering the DS sold 8.56M in 2011, nearly as much as the Switch did last year, probably more than it'll sell this year, and undoubtedly more than it'll sell next year (do you really expect three consecutive years of 8-9M units?). The only chance the Switch has of matching the DS in the U.S. is if its sales in 2023 and later are close to double what the DS's were in 2012 & later. That's not going to happen unless the Switch's successor doesn't come out until late 2025 or 2026.

In Japan, the DS peaked earlier than in the U.S., but what a peak it was. It sold 15.8M in the 2007-08 period, by far the best two-year period of any system ever in Japan. Like, nothing else was even close. The DS currently has a very significant lead over the Switch (and that's again not counting the DS's 2004 sales). The Switch will need to sell at least another 13.5M units in Japan just to tie the DS. That's actually possible, and the Switch's best odds of beating the DS in any one region is definitely Japan. But if it starts to slow down any next year, those odds diminish greatly.

In Europe, well, good God man, just look at the numbers. The Switch isn't even in the same league sales-wise as the DS was.

And if you think the Switch would be selling as well as it has over the past year without the pandemic, then you haven't been paying attention. Since at least this past summer, I've spent considerable time and effort in other threads going over this subject, with more than ample data to back up my arguments. I will not reiterate myself here, I will not argue over this subject anymore, and I'm just going to start ignoring people that simply object for the sake of objecting (i.e., not providing any backing evidence). If people can't deal with the facts, that's their problem, not mine.

One could easily use that data to argue that the pandemic hurt the Switch more than it helped it's sales with the major disruption of supply chains/manufacturing. We will never know how much success Animal Crossing could have had without the pandemic. What if it was still the same global sensation it was but without constraints on supply chains/manufacturing?

The argument loses more steam as we look at the data of this year as the sales are still growing even though everything should be pointing to major downward trends according to your assumptions (no major global phenomenon in gaming, new gaming generation, vaccines, less travel restrictions, etc.).

Yeah, that's the whole point of everyone's argumentation (what he's referring to "not providing any backing evidence")

So, we are counting the Pro model sales of PS4 Pro and XBox One X into the PS4 base and XBox One base sales.  But, in fairness to Microsoft and Sony, we should not count the sales of a Switch Pro with the base model Switch sales.  I'm "fairly" certain you didn't use the word "fair" correctly in your statement.

I almost died from reading this

So, if the Switch Pro turns out to be a greater power upgrade compared to the Wii U going to Switch and with a completely different graphics engine compared to that of the OG Switch, you think that it is laugh-worthy to even debate whether this constitutes a new generation?

I could care less about being "fair" to Microsoft and Sony.  The numbers on the front of this website eventually become meaningless if we have no criteria for what constitutes a new generation.  If the Switch Pro is 4K with DLSS and releases 5 years after the original Switch, I have no idea why wouldn't consider this a new generation the same way we did going from Wii to Wii U.

So, if the Switch Pro turns out to be a greater power upgrade compared to the Wii U going to Switch and with a completely different graphics engine compared to that of the OG Switch, you think that it is laugh-worthy to even debate whether this constitutes a new generation?

I could care less about being "fair" to Microsoft and Sony.  The numbers on the front of this website eventually become meaningless if we have no criteria for what constitutes a new generation.  If the Switch Pro is 4K with DLSS and releases 5 years after the original Switch, I have no idea why wouldn't consider this a new generation the same way we did going from Wii to Wii U.

And I've made it clear that the way it's selling now is not due to normal sales growth.

As of the end of 2020, there were 9.11M units shipped to markets outside the main three, less than half of what it had sold in Japan or Europe by that point. Even if it doubles that, it won't be enough to top PS2 sales outside the main three regions (~25M units). The Switch will definitely have a solid lead over the PS2 in Japan, and possibly a lead over the PS2 in North America, but it's likely going to fall well short of the PS2 outside those two regions. Even if the Switch hits, say, 55M in North America and 30M in Japan, it would still need 73M from Europe and RoW, well over double what current sales are.

Europe and RoW are glaring weak points in the Switch's chances of beating the PS2 globally. Nintendo will have to find some way to keep sales going at current levels until at least the end of 2023, and probably need to actually grow them in that span. I really don't see any possible scenario where that could happen, especially considering that the Switch's sales levels over the past 13 months are not due to normal sales growth.

Given these facts, I don't see any reason to assume that the Switch Pro will cause some massive surge in Switch sales lasting many months. I mean, what are some people really expecting it to do? Keep the Switch going at current levels in 2023 and beyond?