Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

[Bofferbrauer2]

Shadow1980 said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

The way it's selling right now, I don't see how it could stop at 130M. 140M+ is pretty much guaranteed by now.

And I've made it clear that the way it's selling now is not due to normal sales growth.

And we're getting tired to point out that Covid ain't the reason of those sales. If Covid would have had such a big impact on Switch sales, then sales would already have fallen down a cliff, but instead sales are up from last year despite the smash hit that was AC:NH, whose effect you constantly seem to underestimate.  

Shadow1980 said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Here's your first problem: You're forgetting RoW.

The PS2 beat the DS because the latter wasn't doing nearly as well as the former did in those regions. But the Switch is already close to surpassing the DS in total sales in those regions and if it continues selling the way it did last year, could even beat the PS2 in total sales over there.

In Europe the Switch will not beat the PS2, that is clear. But from what I heard around here, it's mostly due to the price; most find the Switch simply too expensive for a secondary console (aka a non-Fifa console). A pricecut could do wonders to the sales in Europe if that's true for more than just the people I talked to, and I'm fairly sure it is. As a result, the final tally in Europe will be smaller than you seem to anticipate

As of the end of 2020, there were 9.11M units shipped to markets outside the main three, less than half of what it had sold in Japan or Europe by that point. Even if it doubles that, it won't be enough to top PS2 sales outside the main three regions (~25M units). The Switch will definitely have a solid lead over the PS2 in Japan, and possibly a lead over the PS2 in North America, but it's likely going to fall well short of the PS2 outside those two regions. Even if the Switch hits, say, 55M in North America and 30M in Japan, it would still need 73M from Europe and RoW, well over double what current sales are.

Europe and RoW are glaring weak points in the Switch's chances of beating the PS2 globally. Nintendo will have to find some way to keep sales going at current levels until at least the end of 2023, and probably need to actually grow them in that span. I really don't see any possible scenario where that could happen, especially considering that the Switch's sales levels over the past 13 months are not due to normal sales growth.

9.11? I think you're a couple months short, otherwise Nintendo would have sold (not shipped, sold!) over 2M already this year, as it's currently sitting at 11.11M sold in our charts here. And you're missing something: The fact that in 2020 Nintendo sold more Switch consoles in the RoW than they did in 2017-2019 combined. Nintendo actually sold more than 5M Switch consoles to RoW in 2020 and will easily get to 15M+ this year. And just look at last week: If you add all together RoW is sitting at over 60k for the week. That's not that far from what the XS is selling every week right now.

And I seem you didn't understand why I mentioned RoW. The DS lost against the PS2 because of it's weakness in that region. But the Switch will overtake the DS this summer over there and will not be far off the PS2 when all is said and done. So it all comes down to US +JP for the Switch vs EU for the PS2.

Shadow1980 said:

Given these facts, I don't see any reason to assume that the Switch Pro will cause some massive surge in Switch sales lasting many months. I mean, what are some people really expecting it to do? Keep the Switch going at current levels in 2023 and beyond?

Why oh why current levels until 2023? And then even beyond?

If the Switch pulls the current numbers until the end of next year, it will already sit at ~140M. From there, it would need to drop waaaaaaaaaaayyyy harder than the Wii ever did to not pass the PS2.

I think you misread the situation a bit. A switch "pro" or whatever refresh would come shouldn't push hardware sales higher - keeping them cruising at current speed and avoiding sales to drop off would be more than enough to keep the Switch going.