Who know outriders would be the game to represent the PS5 for the first time this year

TOP 50 2021 Famitsu:

1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.579.736
2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 855.562
3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 620.516
4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 404.290
5. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 342.411
6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 306.490
7. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 266.927
8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 215.035
9. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 186.661
10. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 180.071
11. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 153.258
12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 143.607
13. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 133.351
14. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 125.071
15. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 91.810
16. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 89.899
17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 74.751
18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 65.654
19. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 59.602
20. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 59.268
21. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 53.615
22. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
23. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 48.928
24. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.689
25. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 47.238
26. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 41.760
27. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
28. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
29. [NSW] Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624
30. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 29.264
31. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 28.240
32. [NSW] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
33. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968
34. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 23.457
35. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 22.442
36. [NSW] The Quintessential Quintuplets (Mages.) - 20.374
37. [NSW] A-Train: All Aboard! Tourism (Artdink) - 20.043
38. [NSW] Apex Legends (Electronic Arts) - 18.728 
39. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
40. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
41. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
42. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 16.235
43. [NSW] Jack Jeanne (Broccoli) - 15.827
44. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 15.228
45. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies - 14.878
46. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 13.942
47. [PS4] NieR: Automata - Game of the YoRHa Edition (Square Enix) - 13.712
48. [NSW] Derby Stallion (GameAddict) - 13.170
49. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco) - 12.327
50. [NSW] Buddy Mission Bond - 11.027

TOTAL: 6.738.267

NSW TOTAL: 6.632.257 (98.43%)

PS4 TOTAL: 106.010 (1.57%)

TOP 10 PUBLISHERS:

1. Nintendo - 2.775.935
2. Capcom - 1.579.736
3. Konami - 870.790
4. Marvelous - 342.430
5. Square Enix - 241.967
6. Pokemon Co - 186.661
7. Bandai Namco - 183.876
8. Microsoft - 180.071
9. Imagineer - 53.615
10. Koei Tecmo - 53.364

This Quarter the best selling new releases on the Switch are going to be Pokemon Snap, Rune Factory 5, Miitopia, Mario Golf, while on the PS4/PS5 we have Resident Evil: Village, Nier Replicant and Scarlet Nexus, it's pretty likely that by the end of the first half of this year over 45 of the Top 50 games are Switch titles.

Top 10 PS4 Games 2020 H1: 

1. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165
2. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676
3. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769
4. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689
5. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772
6. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898
7. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654
8. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593
9. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315
10. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094

TOTAL: 2.470.625

There will be a pretty huge decline for Software YoY on the PlayStation ecosystem, despite Hardware being up - the software being launched on the PS4/PS5 is simply not performing and it's increasingly likely that this will accelerate certain decisions among third parties in terms of where they are focusing their efforts for the fall and 2022. 

Switch base model usually doubles the sales of lite model. This week it is about equal, so there are already shortages of the base model. Switch hardware sales would have been between 180-200k without supply issues.

13 of Switch's 28 games in the top 30 are third party, including 3 of the top 6.

True, unless the Switch also has the same kind of shortages now after the MHR release. But I'm hopeful it won't be the case.

COMGet: Yes, over here!

Nintendo expanded their manufacturing capacity in late 2020, so hopefully they won't have the kind of supply limits this year that they did last year.

https://techraptor.net/gaming/news/nintendo-switch-production-expands-with-new-malaysia-operations

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 20:

1. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.233.023
2. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 556.982
3. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 304.963
4. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 269.648
5. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 207.472
6. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 167.411
7. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513
8. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 133.978
9. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277
10. Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 108.570
11. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 97.056
12. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 95.802
13. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 87.440
14. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 84.814
15. Persona 5 Strikers (Atlus) - 79.250
16. Minecraft Dungeons: Hero Edition (Microsoft ) - 76.784
17. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 75.696
18. Shin Megami Tensei III (Atlus) - 68.280
19. Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 65.234
20. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 64.687

TOTAL: 4.026.880

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 20:

1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.579.736
2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 855.562
3. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 266.927
4. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 180.071
5. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 133.351
6. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 59.602
7. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 59.268
8. Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 53.615
9. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
10. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 48.928
11. Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.689
12. Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
13. Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
14. Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624
15. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 29.264
16. Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
17. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 22.442
18. The Quintessential Quintuplets (Mages.) - 20.374
19. A-Train: All Aboard! Tourism (Artdink) - 20.043
20. Apex Legends (Electronic Arts) - 18.728 

TOTAL: 3.575.710

We are just two weeks shy of 2021 surpassing Switch's best year in terms of third party success, with Rune Factory 5, Samurai Warriors 5, Baseball Spirits, Shin Kun, SMT V, Monster Hunter Rise coming in short order. For third parties 2021 is shaping up to be bigger than the previous four years combined. 

Capcom is likely to make up around half of the third party sales this year with Rise, Stories 2, Ace Attorney all contributing to their best year in Japan, especially when considering that without digital we aren't actually seeing the full picture.  Konami have Momotaro as an evergreen and will soon launch Baseball Spirits ensuring they maintain momentum and build upon their 2020 result, while Marvelous will achieve their biggest year in their history. 

However the physical figures provide only one side of the story. 

The forefathers foretold of the return of digital estimates, and I took up the mantle. 

Noshitsu Third Party Digital Estimates 2021

1. Monster Hunter Rise >900K (#1 eShop Mar)
2. Momotaro >300K (#1 eShop Jan / #4 eShop Feb / #10 eShop Mar)
3. Among Us >250K (#2 eShop Jan / #3 eShop Feb / #2 eShop Mar) 
4. Human Fall Flat >150K (#3 eShop Jan / #5 eShop Feb / #11 eShop Mar) 
5. Olive Town >125K (#2 eShop Feb / #8 eShop Mar)
6. Bravely Default 2 >75K (#6 eShop Feb / #14 eShop Mar) 
7. Minecraft >50K (#9 eShop Jan / #12 eShop Feb / #16 eShop Mar)
8. Overcooked 2 >35K (#15 eShop / #7 eShop Feb)
9. Little Nightmares 2 >25K (#8 eShop Feb)
10. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate >20K (#11 eShop Jan)

TOTAL: >1.93M

Overall we can be certain about the massive sales of Rise digitally in Japan, from the figures Capcom provided, David Gibson giving the digital split and the known sell-through via Famitsu, giving us at minimum 900K sales. 

Momotaro is definitely surpassed 300K digitally this Quarter, January was a massive month for Software sales due to Week 1 digitally so taking the top while at full price is definitely impressive while competing with Among Us which costs Y500, Human Fall Flat also have a massive January due to being on sale, so I don't doubt the game is still getting the large majority of it's sales digitally. While Olive Town's placement ahead of Among Us in February and decent hold in March definitely should place it in the 150K range. Bravely Default 2 was very difficult to find at launch so I think it actually has a pretty high digital sales ratio of over 35% at the moment. 

Digital is overlooked since we don't have that much insight, outside of the occasional comment from studios/publishers. However Human Fall Flat is a great example of a game that could have very well be approaching 2 million in Japan on the Switch alone. It launched digitally well ahead of its physical launch, hasn't exited the Top 20 since I've been tracking the eShop monthlies and is definitely the biggest success story for a Western indie puzzle platformer in Asia across PC, Switch & Mobile.

Also I feel like I may be low-balling how much Bravely Default 2, Minecraft, Overcooked 2, Little Nightmares 2 and MHGU are actually selling digitally. 

The eShop is massive for third parties, although it's largely indie & AA developers benefiting - while the eShop sales are keeping Level 5 electricity bills paid. 

^ Well what do you know, when Japanese third parties support the Switch, they make bank in Japan, who would've thought? They're just now catching up to where they really should've been in 2019.

Yeah, while the slow start on Switch can be partly explained by the poor performance of Wii U, thirds should hopefully be smart enough to jump on Switch 2 from the word go after how Switch has turned out. Maybe we'll even get some good showings for the remainder of Switch 1's life too.