Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 20:
- Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.233.023
- Minecraft (Microsoft) - 556.982
- Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 304.963
- eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 269.648
- Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 207.472
- Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 167.411
- One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513
- Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 133.978
- Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277
- Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 108.570
- Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 97.056
- Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 95.802
- Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 87.440
- Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 84.814
- Persona 5 Strikers (Atlus) - 79.250
- Minecraft Dungeons: Hero Edition (Microsoft ) - 76.784
- Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 75.696
- Shin Megami Tensei III (Atlus) - 68.280
- Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 65.234
- Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 64.687
TOTAL: 4.026.880
Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 20:
- Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.579.736
- Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 855.562
- Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 266.927
- Minecraft (Microsoft) - 180.071
- Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 133.351
- Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 59.602
- Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 59.268
- Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 53.615
- Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
- Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 48.928
- Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.689
- Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
- Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
- Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624
- Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 29.264
- Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
- Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 22.442
- The Quintessential Quintuplets (Mages.) - 20.374
- A-Train: All Aboard! Tourism (Artdink) - 20.043
- Apex Legends (Electronic Arts) - 18.728
TOTAL: 3.575.710
We are just two weeks shy of 2021 surpassing Switch's best year in terms of third party success, with Rune Factory 5, Samurai Warriors 5, Baseball Spirits, Shin Kun, SMT V, Monster Hunter Rise coming in short order. For third parties 2021 is shaping up to be bigger than the previous four years combined.
Capcom is likely to make up around half of the third party sales this year with Rise, Stories 2, Ace Attorney all contributing to their best year in Japan, especially when considering that without digital we aren't actually seeing the full picture. Konami have Momotaro as an evergreen and will soon launch Baseball Spirits ensuring they maintain momentum and build upon their 2020 result, while Marvelous will achieve their biggest year in their history.
However the physical figures provide only one side of the story.
The forefathers foretold of the return of digital estimates, and I took up the mantle.
Noshitsu Third Party Digital Estimates 2021
- Monster Hunter Rise >900K (#1 eShop Mar)
- Momotaro >300K (#1 eShop Jan / #4 eShop Feb / #10 eShop Mar)
- Among Us >250K (#2 eShop Jan / #3 eShop Feb / #2 eShop Mar)
- Human Fall Flat >150K (#3 eShop Jan / #5 eShop Feb / #11 eShop Mar)
- Olive Town >125K (#2 eShop Feb / #8 eShop Mar)
- Bravely Default 2 >75K (#6 eShop Feb / #14 eShop Mar)
- Minecraft >50K (#9 eShop Jan / #12 eShop Feb / #16 eShop Mar)
- Overcooked 2 >35K (#15 eShop / #7 eShop Feb)
- Little Nightmares 2 >25K (#8 eShop Feb)
- Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate >20K (#11 eShop Jan)
TOTAL: >1.93M
Overall we can be certain about the massive sales of Rise digitally in Japan, from the figures Capcom provided, David Gibson giving the digital split and the known sell-through via Famitsu, giving us at minimum 900K sales.
Momotaro is definitely surpassed 300K digitally this Quarter, January was a massive month for Software sales due to Week 1 digitally so taking the top while at full price is definitely impressive while competing with Among Us which costs Y500, Human Fall Flat also have a massive January due to being on sale, so I don't doubt the game is still getting the large majority of it's sales digitally. While Olive Town's placement ahead of Among Us in February and decent hold in March definitely should place it in the 150K range. Bravely Default 2 was very difficult to find at launch so I think it actually has a pretty high digital sales ratio of over 35% at the moment.
Digital is overlooked since we don't have that much insight, outside of the occasional comment from studios/publishers. However Human Fall Flat is a great example of a game that could have very well be approaching 2 million in Japan on the Switch alone. It launched digitally well ahead of its physical launch, hasn't exited the Top 20 since I've been tracking the eShop monthlies and is definitely the biggest success story for a Western indie puzzle platformer in Asia across PC, Switch & Mobile.
Also I feel like I may be low-balling how much Bravely Default 2, Minecraft, Overcooked 2, Little Nightmares 2 and MHGU are actually selling digitally.
The eShop is massive for third parties, although it's largely indie & AA developers benefiting - while the eShop sales are keeping Level 5 electricity bills paid.
