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ironmanDX said:
kirby007 said:

1 in 10 people got the premium forza addon pack in combination with game pass. Ez 40 million

And that's only so far... During launch week. I'm going to play it to near the end and then think about getting the expansion pass while hoping for some sort of holiday or black Friday type sale.

Otherwise the 20% discount after being 90 days in gamepass



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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I'm more interested in what third parties are getting out of GP. Does anyone know how it works? How much are they compensated for giving their games out for free, basically? Is it profitable enough for them in the long run? Is it profitable enough for Microsoft in the long run?



Dante9 said:

I'm more interested in what third parties are getting out of GP. Does anyone know how it works? How much are they compensated for giving their games out for free, basically? Is it profitable enough for them in the long run? Is it profitable enough for Microsoft in the long run?

The negotiations and contracts are different for every game, but I don't think any developer or publisher would accept the deal without reaching a number that pleases them.



src said:

Wow so we finally have the full data.

2020: PS 82%:18% XB

2021: PS 83%:17% XB

This means that ps5 is 1.9m and xbs is 0.4m. Roughly something like 5 to 1. Even if half of the UK xbs are series s, and even taking into account the difference in digital ratio , would it spread to 5 to 1?

I would be interested to see UK hardware numbers on VGC if they have them. VGC shows ps5 and xbs as 2 to 1 across Europe.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

ironmanDX said:
src said:

Wow so we finally have the full data.

2020: PS 82%:18% XB

2021: PS 83%:17% XB

Literally says sold at retail. Stop trying so hard.

Oh and we already got digital sales ratio UK 2020:

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2021-01-08-43-million-games-sold-in-the-uk-in-2020-uk-annual-report

"If we purely look at digital sales, PS4 had a 41% market share, ahead of Xbox One's 26%."

61:39

At 66:33 (avg digital rate in 2020), overall that puts PS:XB:

69:31.

70% of all game sales in the UK = 70-80%+ all of game sales WW = absolute domination. Not even Steam or the Apple app store has such a marketshare on third party transactions.

Did I say it didn't. Learn to read.

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
src said:

Wow so we finally have the full data.

2020: PS 82%:18% XB

2021: PS 83%:17% XB

This means that ps5 is 1.9m and xbs is 0.4m. Roughly something like 5 to 1. Even if half of the UK xbs are series s, and even taking into account the difference in digital ratio , would it spread to 5 to 1?

I would be interested to see UK hardware numbers on VGC if they have them. VGC shows ps5 and xbs as 2 to 1 across Europe.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2021-01-08-43-million-games-sold-in-the-uk-in-2020-uk-annual-report

"If we purely look at digital sales, PS4 had a 41% market share, ahead of Xbox One's 26%."

61:39

At 66:33 (avg digital rate in 2020), overall that puts PS:XB:

69:31.

70% of all game sales in the UK = 70-80%+ all of game sales WW = absolute domination. Not even Steam or the Apple app store has such a marketshare on third party transactions.



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BF 2042: 70:30



UK physical splits are still useful for extrapolation. We just gotta adjust and assume a stronger digital bias for Xbox ecosystem than previously thought, as a consequence of Series S dominating later months as opposed to PS5DE representing a small percentage of PS5's sold.

Initially, GfK's physical splits reports combined Xbox systems, but now they're often separating One from Series XS, giving us a slightly clearer picture of what's happening. If I'm not mistaken, FW physical sales are typically PS5 >> PS4 > X1 > XS. This shows that digital bias for Xbox is directly tied to Series S's dominance.

In 2020, it was reasonable to assume a fairly frequent 5-10% change in Xbox's favor when digital is accounted for. It's safe to now bump that up to 10%-15% for games that don't have digital discounts, and maybe 20%+ for games that do. The increased digital bias has less to do with Xbox community favoring digital, and more with the production volumes of digital-only consoles; a factor I initially didn't think much of because Series S had a weak early demand and I didn't factor in Series X production being anywhere near as bad as it turned out.

I expect 2021's overall digital sales on Playstation and Xbox to be much closer than last year's.



So I looked through the gameindustry monthly articles and could only find two cases where monthly digital and physical splits were given for games.

RE8:
Physical [80:20]
All [65:35] (58:31:11)(PS:XB:PC)

FC6:
Physical [70:30]
All [58:42]

Avg digital ratio in increments of 10% (60%,70%,80%,90%).
Total software sales split using above increments:
RE8 - [55:45] , [59:41] , [61:39] , [63:37]
FC6 - [50:50] , [53:47] , [55:45] , [57:43]

We know in 2020 the digital split between PS and XB was [61:39]. We know Xbox was disproportionately increased its digital share. Lets assume [55:45] 2021.
Many months this year have digital to physical software sold ratios of [63:37]. Unfortunately this includes PC, so physical should be bigger, but SW does not give digital and accounts for 20% of all software sales. Assuming PC accounts for 10% of digital sales (RE8 had this), we get [77:23].
We can roughly see an avg of [75:25] for PS:XB physical 2021.

In summary, our assumptions:
- 2021 PS:XB digital software split = [55:45]
- 2021 PS:XB physical software split = [75:25]
- 2021 digital to physical split = [77:23]

0.77(55) + 0.23(75) = 60
Therefore [60:40] can be estimated as the total software split PS:XB UK.
The hardware split for PS4/XB1 was [56:44].
As you can see, Playstation is getting a disproportionate amount of software sales in XB's 2nd biggest market.

Ubisoft global splits (inc. digital)
2020: [63:37]
2021: [66:34]

Region split (EU:US:RotW)
2021: [32:50:18]
Some interesting things we can work out from here with this [1]. Assuming the regions have the same software tie ratio, UK accounts for 20% of PS4 software sales and 48% of XB software sales in EU. Therefore the UK accounts for (using FC6 splits) 0.58(20) + 0.42(48) = 31.7% of Ubi sales in EU. So we have [22.4, 9.6, 50, 18].

Now we can estimate the Ubi split in (EU + RotW)
0.66 - [0.5(54) + 0.096(58)] = 84

Hardware split in 2019 [1]:
- US [54:46]
- UK [56:44]
- EU [81:19]
- AS (JP,SK,TW) [98:02]

TLDR:

- PS has 60:40 lead on XB in UK despite hardware split being 56:44
- A western game has 66% console sales on Playstation. This could be 75-85% for JP games.
- This could mean Playstation has a whopping 84:16 split on western software in EU+RoTW. This could be 90%+ for a JP game.
- MHW, perhaps an extreme due to being Asia centric where XB is 0, has 84% of console sales on Playstation.

CONCLUSION: Playstation is, imo pretty safely, getting 70-75% of all software sales in PS/XB games.

[1] https://www.resetera.com/threads/hardware-and-software-sales-2019-in-many-countries.277262/



src said:

So I looked through the gameindustry monthly articles and could only find two cases where monthly digital and physical splits were given for games.

RE8:
Physical [80:20]
All [65:35] (58:31:11)(PS:XB:PC)

FC6:
Physical [70:30]
All [58:42]

Avg digital ratio in increments of 10% (60%,70%,80%,90%).
Total software sales split using above increments:
RE8 - [55:45] , [59:41] , [61:39] , [63:37]
FC6 - [50:50] , [53:47] , [55:45] , [57:43]

We know in 2020 the digital split between PS and XB was [61:39]. We know Xbox was disproportionately increased its digital share. Lets assume [55:45] 2021.
Many months this year have digital to physical software sold ratios of [63:37]. Unfortunately this includes PC, so physical should be bigger, but SW does not give digital and accounts for 20% of all software sales. Assuming PC accounts for 10% of digital sales (RE8 had this), we get [77:23].
We can roughly see an avg of [75:25] for PS:XB physical 2021.

In summary, our assumptions:
- 2021 PS:XB digital software split = [55:45]
- 2021 PS:XB physical software split = [75:25]
- 2021 digital to physical split = [77:23]

0.77(55) + 0.23(75) = 60
Therefore [60:40] can be estimated as the total software split PS:XB UK.
The hardware split for PS4/XB1 was [56:44].
As you can see, Playstation is getting a disproportionate amount of software sales in XB's 2nd biggest market.

Ubisoft global splits (inc. digital)
2020: [63:37]
2021: [66:34]

Region split (EU:US:RotW)
2021: [32:50:18]
Some interesting things we can work out from here with this [1]. Assuming the regions have the same software tie ratio, UK accounts for 20% of PS4 software sales and 48% of XB software sales in EU. Therefore the UK accounts for (using FC6 splits) 0.58(20) + 0.42(48) = 31.7% of Ubi sales in EU. So we have [22.4, 9.6, 50, 18].

Now we can estimate the Ubi split in (EU + RotW)
0.66 - [0.5(54) + 0.096(58)] = 84

Hardware split in 2019 [1]:
- US [54:46]
- UK [56:44]
- EU [81:19]
- AS (JP,SK,TW) [98:02]

TLDR:

- PS has 60:40 lead on XB in UK despite hardware split being 56:44
- A western game has 66% console sales on Playstation. This could be 75-85% for JP games.
- This could mean Playstation has a whopping 84:16 split on western software in EU+RoTW. This could be 90%+ for a JP game.
- MHW, perhaps an extreme due to being Asia centric where XB is 0, has 84% of console sales on Playstation.

CONCLUSION: Playstation is, imo pretty safely, getting 70-75% of all software sales in PS/XB games.

[1] https://www.resetera.com/threads/hardware-and-software-sales-2019-in-many-countries.277262/

Hardware split in the UK actually is ~60:40 for PS5:XBS.

Last edited by Welfare - 3 days ago

Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Welfare said:
src said:

So I looked through the gameindustry monthly articles and could only find two cases where monthly digital and physical splits were given for games.

RE8:
Physical [80:20]
All [65:35] (58:31:11)(PS:XB:PC)

FC6:
Physical [70:30]
All [58:42]

Avg digital ratio in increments of 10% (60%,70%,80%,90%).
Total software sales split using above increments:
RE8 - [55:45] , [59:41] , [61:39] , [63:37]
FC6 - [50:50] , [53:47] , [55:45] , [57:43]

We know in 2020 the digital split between PS and XB was [61:39]. We know Xbox was disproportionately increased its digital share. Lets assume [55:45] 2021.
Many months this year have digital to physical software sold ratios of [63:37]. Unfortunately this includes PC, so physical should be bigger, but SW does not give digital and accounts for 20% of all software sales. Assuming PC accounts for 10% of digital sales (RE8 had this), we get [77:23].
We can roughly see an avg of [75:25] for PS:XB physical 2021.

In summary, our assumptions:
- 2021 PS:XB digital software split = [55:45]
- 2021 PS:XB physical software split = [75:25]
- 2021 digital to physical split = [77:23]

0.77(55) + 0.23(75) = 60
Therefore [60:40] can be estimated as the total software split PS:XB UK.
The hardware split for PS4/XB1 was [56:44].
As you can see, Playstation is getting a disproportionate amount of software sales in XB's 2nd biggest market.

Ubisoft global splits (inc. digital)
2020: [63:37]
2021: [66:34]

Region split (EU:US:RotW)
2021: [32:50:18]
Some interesting things we can work out from here with this [1]. Assuming the regions have the same software tie ratio, UK accounts for 20% of PS4 software sales and 48% of XB software sales in EU. Therefore the UK accounts for (using FC6 splits) 0.58(20) + 0.42(48) = 31.7% of Ubi sales in EU. So we have [22.4, 9.6, 50, 18].

Now we can estimate the Ubi split in (EU + RotW)
0.66 - [0.5(54) + 0.096(58)] = 84

Hardware split in 2019 [1]:
- US [54:46]
- UK [56:44]
- EU [81:19]
- AS (JP,SK,TW) [98:02]

TLDR:

- PS has 60:40 lead on XB in UK despite hardware split being 56:44
- A western game has 66% console sales on Playstation. This could be 75-85% for JP games.
- This could mean Playstation has a whopping 84:16 split on western software in EU+RoTW. This could be 90%+ for a JP game.
- MHW, perhaps an extreme due to being Asia centric where XB is 0, has 84% of console sales on Playstation.

CONCLUSION: Playstation is, imo pretty safely, getting 70-75% of all software sales in PS/XB games.

[1] https://www.resetera.com/threads/hardware-and-software-sales-2019-in-many-countries.277262/

Hardware split in the UK actually is ~60:40 for PS5:XBS.

56:44 is for PS4:XB1.

Where is the source for the PS5:XBS numbers?