Damn right. Beef it up the way Ring Fit did over Wii Fit and you could have another breakout hit I reckon. 

With a projection of 250 million, they are probably expecting to have at least one big game. Animal Crossing sold over 30 million (although part of that was in FYE3/20). Most likely culprits are BoTW 2 or a new Mario Kart. There is a good chance it's the former since they'll likely push it with a Switch Pro. But really, I think this means more software which, as curl-6 pointed out, most EDA teams are overdue for a new game.

Will certainly be a huge year. I think hardware sales definitely have a shot of being better than last year. Last year was basically just AC mania most of the year plus Covid. This year there are a slew of big games coming out, as well as smaller first party games as well. Bowser's Fury will keep selling well next fiscal year, Mario Golf, Miitopia, Skyward Sword port, Pokemon Snap, Monster Hunter Stories, various others that will sell well, then you've got the huge players Monster Hunter Rise, BotW2, Pokemon remake. Add in upgraded Switch model to boost sales even more by bringing home 4k TV gamers who'll finally make the jump to the Switch as well as 2017 Switch buyers who wouldn't mind an upgrade as well as the hardcore Nintendites who just collect everything Nintendo.

I definitely don't see MK9 in the next year though - we've already got BotW2 and Pokemon remake both likely holiday titles, so between that and all the other first party games releasing this year there is no reason for another Mario Kart in the next year. Plus MK8D is still the best evergreen on the Switch, so why self compete with your golden goose? The only way I see MK9 coming out on Switch is if Nintendo intends the upgraded Switch model to sort of be a Switch 1.5 that gets a whole host of higher end 3rd party games exclusive to that model and they intend to try to get lots of people to upgrade for an expanded 3rd AAA library and use the upgraded model as a base to extend the Switch's lifecycle by several years beyond probably like an expected 2024 successor to something like a 2027 successor. If that is their plan then sure a holiday 2022 MK9 that takes advantage of the more powerful upgrade (while still being playable on standard Switch hardware) I think would be in the game plan. But if Nintendo is looking at a ~2024 successor they may as well let their golden goose keep giving them free money and have MK9 as a launch title on the successor while focusing their time on the many franchises that have yet to hit the Switch.

They already have two mega games: BotW2 and Pokemon remake. Plus a slew of other first party games that'll sell several million each. And no doubt some games we don't yet know about. Plus it'll be interesting to see if they throw out Splatoon 3 for a March launch next year which would add a few million to the total to help get to that 250 million number. BotW2 and Pokemon remake alone, probably will release in Nov and Dec, will combine for probably close to 40 million in sales by end of March 2022.

I just want to note that Nintendo is notoriously terrible at forecasting sales and financial performance.

If Nintendo doesn't bring out another sports game in the vein of Wii Sports, or at least port Wii Sports Club from Wii U, that'll be a huge missed opportunity by them.

Also they need to add more games to the Ring Fit franchise - a one off game that required you to be the peripheral is another huge missed opportunity. People already paid extra just to play Ring Fit, now give them an opportunity to play more games with the Ring! I'm honestly shocked they haven't already followed it up with a second Ring Fit Something game. These would be non-graphically intensive (and therefore fairly cheap) games to develop and would each sell many millions.

Hopefully both these games will hit this year with a surprise announcement shortly before they come out.

normally, it's too conservative 

My prediction is a coming FY22 around 80-90% of the one just finishing now (FY21).
For HW I mean, for SW it could be more.
I just absolutely don't see any new coming game which would act as a HW boost.
The only one which could tempt me to buy a Switch, is a F-ZERO. A remake of GX is enough to me.

I only like Breath of the Wild and I have it on Wii U....Well then it is 2 games which tempt me. :|

They miss both ways.  Last couple of years it has been too conservative.  But, just a few years before that they were regularly underperforming their own projections.

New Pokemon Snap and the Diamond/Pearl remakes both have enormous nostalgic value to many and will move hardware, while BOTW2, Pokemon Legends and Splatoon 3 could all potentially arrive within this FY.