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VideoGameAccountant said:

With a projection of 250 million, they are probably expecting to have at least one big game. Animal Crossing sold over 30 million (although part of that was in FYE3/20). Most likely culprits are BoTW 2 or a new Mario Kart. There is a good chance it's the former since they'll likely push it with a Switch Pro. But really, I think this means more software which, as curl-6 pointed out, most EDA teams are overdue for a new game.

They already have two mega games: BotW2 and Pokemon remake. Plus a slew of other first party games that'll sell several million each. And no doubt some games we don't yet know about. Plus it'll be interesting to see if they throw out Splatoon 3 for a March launch next year which would add a few million to the total to help get to that 250 million number. BotW2 and Pokemon remake alone, probably will release in Nov and Dec, will combine for probably close to 40 million in sales by end of March 2022.