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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2021?


Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2021?

Less than 5 million 120 14.83%
5.0 - 5.9 million 63 7.79%
6.0 - 6.9 million 67 8.28%
7.0 - 7.9 million 99 12.24%
8.0 - 8.9 million 125 15.45%
9.0 - 9.9 million 74 9.15%
10.0 - 11.9 million 163 20.15%
12.0 - 13.9 million 38 4.70%
14.0 - 16.0 million 22 2.72%
More than 16 million 38 4.70%

I clicked 9-10 million, but it should be more than that. But who knows, we live in an unpredictable era where supplies are scarce due to the cov19 situation and both consoles seem to be on par performance wise.

As for my most anticipated Xbox title, Perfect Dark seems to be the most ambitious one. I haven’t ever played the first ones, but I hope it’s not necessary in order to grasp the story.

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Seeing as how their first year is weaker than the ex1's first year games wise I think it will do a bit less. So maybe between 6 to 7 million. Seems like the xbox series has less mindshare outside the US then the x1 had. It also seems that the are not even thinking of being competitive untill 2022.

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Didnt they have some sort of production issue that caused them to start late?
I expect Series X+S, to be lower first year than Xbox One was.

RolStoppable said:

For reference, here is what the Xbox One sold through in its first full calendar year, according to VGC estimates:


Yep pretty sure, Series X+S does less than this in its first calendar year.

After giveing it a little more throught, I think it ll probably be abit over 6m.

Question: How well does Cyberpunk 2077 run on the Series S?  Is it closer to PS5's performance or PS4's performance?  I can see the Series S at $300 being a attractive buy for some people if can run Cyberpunk well.

6m as the current line up stands, depending on their holiday strategy however they can do better. I just have doubts they have anything significant to push systems.


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Less than 7 million

I will bet 6-6.9 range

I expect somewhat more than with the XBO, around 8.5M

MS will try to not repeat mistakes made with XBOne, so, despite weaker than PS5, XS could gain a few percent more compared to its predecessor, plus MS will also do its best to reach a symbolically important milestone. I'd say 10.1M

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Less than Xbox One, so max 7 million

They try to produce as many Series S as Series X, which is a bad idea since the Series S is selling way less than the Series X, which will impact their sales. And no real reason to buy the console. And there is the PS5 concurrence and the Switch concurrence.

So yeah, 7 million

I don't really think there's any way to predict sales unless we have some way to predict how many units they can produce period if the systems became widely available tomorrow, and say that way through the end of the year, then I can see 10 million or more in sales. If the PS5 stays supply constrained but Xbox does not, then sales will go even higher. But, if they don't get supply straightened out until april, or they have other supply issues throughout the year, they obviously cannot sell systems that they cannot produce. So, in that case I would predict that they sell every system they can manufacture.

while it does of course make sense to compare to their previous system, I think the current generation strategy is much better than the last. They now have systems at two price points, giving them both the most powerful and the least expensive console this generation. They also haven't done as much stuff to piss gamers off this time around. Add to that game pass subscriptions that will limit the number of people that might switch to PlayStation this generation, and you have several factors in xbox's favor. So, I expect sales to be better than Xbox One throughout the generation. Again, that's assuming that supply issues and soon.