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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2021?

Less than 5 million 120 14.83%
 
5.0 - 5.9 million 63 7.79%
 
6.0 - 6.9 million 67 8.28%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 99 12.24%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 125 15.45%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 74 9.15%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 163 20.15%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 38 4.70%
 
14.0 - 16.0 million 22 2.72%
 
More than 16 million 38 4.70%
 
Total:809

I honestly have no idea. Series S throws a wrench into the normal sales predictions. I'll guess 8 to 8.9 million. Series X will fall far behind PS5 in sales due to the digital PS5 being a better deal. But then there's the S which combined with gamepass should capture a chunk of the broke gamer market.



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so it's 100m behind ps5



9-9.9m



Ok so currently, after 3.5 months we have 1.5 million units sold, so I guess it will eventually reach 4 million by october and maybe 3 more million during the last quarter, so total being 7 million



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

SKMBlake said:

Ok so currently, after 3.5 months we have 1.5 million units sold, so I guess it will eventually reach 4 million by october and maybe 3 more million during the last quarter, so total being 7 million

Ok so far it's pretty much spot on



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

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XBO (Jan - August 2013) = 2.19m
XSX (Jan - August 2021) = 3.89m

Would have to have a pretty poor holiday to not stay ahead of the XBO. 8.5m for the year is my guess but I think that's conservative. 



Gamerscore:20,000  -  Trophies:3,800 -  Nintendo Awards: -1

My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.

SKMBlake said:
SKMBlake said:

Ok so currently, after 3.5 months we have 1.5 million units sold, so I guess it will eventually reach 4 million by october and maybe 3 more million during the last quarter, so total being 7 million

Ok so far it's pretty much spot on

You've got close for the 4m by October, problem you're going to have is 3m in the last quarter is very low. The XBO managed 4.35m in the final quarter of 2014. 3m is only going to happen if they can't make more than that.



Gamerscore:20,000  -  Trophies:3,800 -  Nintendo Awards: -1

My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.

Zippy6 said:
SKMBlake said:

Ok so far it's pretty much spot on

You've got close for the 4m by October, problem you're going to have is 3m in the last quarter is very low. The XBO managed 4.35m in the final quarter of 2014. 3m is only going to happen if they can't make more than that.

That's the problem, I don't think they'll manage to produce a bigger amount of Series X by the end of the year



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

Iirc someone did a chip production analysis on TSMC for PS5 and XSX/S chips. The estimates were 16 million : 8 million.
Lines up with the 2:1 sales dominance PS has over XB now (which grew to 2.5:1 over the gen) and Sony's PS5 sales prediction.