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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2021?

Less than 5 million 119 14.84%
 
5.0 - 5.9 million 63 7.86%
 
6.0 - 6.9 million 67 8.35%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 99 12.34%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 122 15.21%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 74 9.23%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 161 20.07%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 37 4.61%
 
14.0 - 16.0 million 22 2.74%
 
More than 16 million 38 4.74%
 
Total:802

MS will try to not repeat mistakes made with XBOne, so, despite weaker than PS5, XS could gain a few percent more compared to its predecessor, plus MS will also do its best to reach a symbolically important milestone. I'd say 10.1M



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Less than Xbox One, so max 7 million

They try to produce as many Series S as Series X, which is a bad idea since the Series S is selling way less than the Series X, which will impact their sales. And no real reason to buy the console. And there is the PS5 concurrence and the Switch concurrence.

So yeah, 7 million



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
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I don't really think there's any way to predict sales unless we have some way to predict how many units they can produce period if the systems became widely available tomorrow, and say that way through the end of the year, then I can see 10 million or more in sales. If the PS5 stays supply constrained but Xbox does not, then sales will go even higher. But, if they don't get supply straightened out until april, or they have other supply issues throughout the year, they obviously cannot sell systems that they cannot produce. So, in that case I would predict that they sell every system they can manufacture.

while it does of course make sense to compare to their previous system, I think the current generation strategy is much better than the last. They now have systems at two price points, giving them both the most powerful and the least expensive console this generation. They also haven't done as much stuff to piss gamers off this time around. Add to that game pass subscriptions that will limit the number of people that might switch to PlayStation this generation, and you have several factors in xbox's favor. So, I expect sales to be better than Xbox One throughout the generation. Again, that's assuming that supply issues and soon.



After thinking about it, I think they'll sell in the 7-8m range.



thats a lot of votes for such few post.



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I did 10-11.9M. Though I know right now it is tracking lower than the Xbox One did, I believe interest is higher than the One and the biggest difference is manufacturing. I also feel like the videogame market is overall in a much healthier place than it was in 2014. Especially with Halo arriving this year. If it is good and MS can manufacture more it should preform better than the X1 did.

Edit: For the bonus question...I'm going to say a tie between Fable, Halo: Infinite, and Perfect Dark. I know that Halo: Infinite didn't look astounding graphically, but gameplay wise it looked pretty fun for me. I'm down for an open world Halo. Perfect Dark and Fable were just teaser trailers though, but Playground Games have been consistently great with the Horizon series and The Initiative has a bunch of good talent. I don't own a Series X though, but if they all turn out good maybe I'll buy. 



I guess around 7.0-7.9m, a bit less than Xbox One



 

VAMatt said:

hile it does of course make sense to compare to their previous system, I think the current generation strategy is much better than the last. They now have systems at two price points, giving them both the most powerful and the least expensive console this generation. They also haven't done as much stuff to piss gamers off this time around. Add to that game pass subscriptions that will limit the number of people that might switch to PlayStation this generation, and you have several factors in xbox's favor. 

The problem is that the Series X is in competition with the PS5 and the Series S is in competition with the Switch (and the PS5 DE). 

And both PS5 and Switch win in their price point.



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

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SKMBlake said:
VAMatt said:

hile it does of course make sense to compare to their previous system, I think the current generation strategy is much better than the last. They now have systems at two price points, giving them both the most powerful and the least expensive console this generation. They also haven't done as much stuff to piss gamers off this time around. Add to that game pass subscriptions that will limit the number of people that might switch to PlayStation this generation, and you have several factors in xbox's favor. 

The problem is that the Series X is in competition with the PS5 and the Series S is in competition with the Switch (and the PS5 DE). 

And both PS5 and Switch win in their price point.

By "price point" I'm guessing you're referring to the $200 Switch Lite and $400 for the PS5 Digital.

The Switch automatically wins in price, but from what we've seen the standard $300 Switch is the one most people want. They're willing to spend the extra $100 to get HD Rumble, TV Play, and Joy Con controllers.

For PS5 I think most people will want the Disc version since it is $100 more and they will have that option for discs especially since game prices are now going towards $70, and physical games drop in price just after a few weeks. 

The Xbox Series S and X are in a more interesting position. Since there is a $200 gap some will think harder about which one they want. Now I did mention game prices for PS5 going to $70 and the same applies to both Series S and X, but they have GamePass which makes these consoles appealing for consumers on the cheap.

Of course the market will dictate these prices. Of course for the Switch and Switch Lite people are willing to pay $200 and $300 for those systems. Like really think about this, the Switch is going into it's 5th year and has not seen a price drop. Now the question is later when Xbox's and PS5's will sales slow down because the market doesn't want to buy them at those prices? We will find out possibly next year. My prediction is that in 2 years these systems will see a $50 - $100 price drop.



Sogreblute said:
SKMBlake said:

The problem is that the Series X is in competition with the PS5 and the Series S is in competition with the Switch (and the PS5 DE). 

And both PS5 and Switch win in their price point.

By "price point" I'm guessing you're referring to the $200 Switch Lite and $400 for the PS5 Digital.

The Switch automatically wins in price, but from what we've seen the standard $300 Switch is the one most people want. They're willing to spend the extra $100 to get HD Rumble, TV Play, and Joy Con controllers.

For PS5 I think most people will want the Disc version since it is $100 more and they will have that option for discs especially since game prices are now going towards $70, and physical games drop in price just after a few weeks. 

The Xbox Series S and X are in a more interesting position. Since there is a $200 gap some will think harder about which one they want. Now I did mention game prices for PS5 going to $70 and the same applies to both Series S and X, but they have GamePass which makes these consoles appealing for consumers on the cheap.

Of course the market will dictate these prices. Of course for the Switch and Switch Lite people are willing to pay $200 and $300 for those systems. Like really think about this, the Switch is going into it's 5th year and has not seen a price drop. Now the question is later when Xbox's and PS5's will sales slow down because the market doesn't want to buy them at those prices? We will find out possibly next year. My prediction is that in 2 years these systems will see a $50 - $100 price drop.

You slightly missed my point but your overal comment is very interesting



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me