Tremendous work!! Thank you so much!!

I'm guessing that's the global percentage (16 weeks sales/total 2020 sales *100)

But looking at your Switch Japan projection I believe you have applied the global percentage to extrapolate the regional 2021 totals?

I think this would still result in your global projections being correct, but might mean your regional projections are skewed, eg from your tables in the first post the Switch in Japan 2021 is basically neck & neck with 2020, I believe to be more like 29% of yearly Japan sales. (US & Europe are probably a bit lower than 23.8% to compensate)

So for Japan if you keep to just the regional figures:
2020 at 16 week = 1,865,457
2020 total = 6,383,954
16 week percentage = 29.22%
2021 at 16 week = 1,869,354
2021 projection = 6,397,290

That said as I mentioned earlier in the thread, as you are comparing a 52 week year to a 53 week, Switch 2020 will basically be starting the year with 459k advantage (216k in Japan), to project for 2021 it might be better to compare the 16 weeks ending 24th April 2021 with the 16 weeks ending 25th April 2020. It won't make a big difference to the global projection (in fact for Switch it will lower it slightly as it sold more on that w/e 25th than it did w/e 4th Jan) but it will match the weeks up better.

So for Japan with 52 week comparison:
2020 at 16 week = 1,760,800
2020 total = 6,167,442
16 week percentage = 28.55%
2021 at 16 week = 1,869,354
2021 projection = 6,547,667

And for global 52 week comparison:
2020 at 16 week = 6,841,845
2020 total = 27,834,889
16 week percentage = 24.58%
2021 at 16 week = 7,364,563
2021 projection = 29,961,479

Week 18 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in the United States; Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in Europe; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in the United States: Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

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It's officially the first week of May and following more adjustments, we're seeing leads grow and shrink all over the place.

The Switch is seeing its lead get smaller and smaller and it will take a big hit next week. We'll see if Mario Golf and Skyward Sword HD in June and July will be able to help 2021 withstand 2020's onslaught and hang on to its lead is we enter the dog days of summer.

The PS5 and Xbox Series continue to steadily add to their leads while the PS4 and Xbox One continue to fall further behind their predecessors.

Next week is probably the last of the big hits Switch 2021 will get from Switch 2020 until probably the holidays. Switch 2021 lead will probably shrink to about 250k after next week. From then on, I can see Switch 2021 being more competitive and perhaps gaining back some ground against Switch 2020.

Mario Golf in June and SS HD in July should definitely help. First console Mario Golf in almost 2 decades. I could see SS being a big system seller, potentially outselling the Wii version in its launch quarter.

Big E3 news could also help bump up Switch numbers and hopefully there will be some big titles this holiday. If Switch Pro & BOTW 2 launch this year, maybe 2021 could win (personally, I see Switch Pro & BOTW 2 launching simultaneously on March 25, 2022, the 12th week of the year, which is the same week we got ACNH & MH:R).

Either way, I am impressed at how well Switch 2021 has done against Switch 2020 so far. I don't think it's likely for 2021 to beat 2020, but I definitely have not ruled it out. We'll definitely know more in less than a month. Maybe if the Switch Pro launches next year, they could cut the price of the OG Switch and Switch Lite this September. I'm sure Pokemon will bring a big bump to Switch sales. Should sell more than any Switch game released last holiday.

Famitsu numbers has Switch up 300k this year compared to last, while this comparison has it at only 25k. Are VGC numbers that much off (they're usually quite similar to Famitsu) or have you put in the wrong number somewhere?

Different weeks counted.

Famitsu ends on Sundays for a start, VGC weeks end on Saturday (though this doesn't make a big difference except when those days cross specific holidays)

Famitsu figures are also more recent, the latest week is for w/e Sunday May 16th, VGC latest week is for Saturday May 8th

Main thing though is that for VGC week 1 of 2021 is w/e Sat 9th Jan, whereas for Famitsu week 1 of 2021 is w/e Sun 3rd Jan.

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So these are the actual date ranges being compared:

Famitsu:
20 week ending May 17th 2020 vs. 20 weeks ending May 16th 2021

VGC figures PAOerfulone is using:
18 weeks ending May 2nd 2020 vs. 18 weeks ending May 8th 2021


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This means VGC figures for 2020 include the week that crosses the New Year, which is a big sales period in Japan, wheras the figures for 2021 don't include that week. I do think it's a mistake when doing direct weekly comparisons, but that week would have to be put somewhere for yearly comparisons.

Pardon my impatience, but ima make quick projection like with last weeks results:

Edit: Added 2017 and 2018 to the comparison

Switch 2017 *Launched in March

As of week 18: 3.215 million

Percentage of total: 24.51%

Total sales for year: 13.118 million

Switch 2018

As of week 18: 3.535 million

Percentage of total: 21.64%

Total sales for year: 16.339 million

Switch 2019 *Switch Lite Release in September

As of week 18: 4.26 million

Percentage of total: 22.07%

Total sales for year: 19.296 million

Switch 2020

As of week 18: 7.746 million

Percentage of total: 27.38%

Total sales for year: 28.294 million

Switch 2021

As of week 18: 8.227 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2017)

Total sales for year: 33.57 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2018)

Total sales for year: 38.03 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2019)

Total sales for year: 37.28 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2020)

Total sales for year: 30.05 million

Given Holiday sales last year were somewhat underwhelming, the road to 30 million and beyond remains clear.

Yeah, I think Switch is guaranteed to sell 30m+ this year.  The real question for me is how far above 30m are they going to get.  It will probably be based on how much they are capable of manufacturing.  I doubt they will manufacture 37m+ even if they have an amazing software lineup and demand is actually that high.

The optimist in me would be inclined to agree, but after having predicted 30M last year and overshooting quarterly results 2 times in a row, I've still pegged my current prediction at 26 Million (Which I have high confidence will be exceeded) as that would still be enough, according to my predictions, for the Switch to reach 165 Million LTD.

Regardless, the trends are clearly pointing towards 30M<, so it's just a matter of Nintendo keeping supply steady throughout the rest of the year. Assuming 30M is reached this year, that would throw my current predictions straight out the window, as it would be clear that the Switch would be heading for 170M and beyond. All I can say is that Tbone better be right about this one.

Nintendo announced that they are also getting affected by the chip crunch now, several chips on the Switch's Mainboard are apparently getting harder and harder to come by. As such, I fear the maximum is not what Nintendo can sell, but what they will be able to get in parts to produce.