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Torpoleon on 21 May 2021
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Next week is probably the last of the big hits Switch 2021 will get from Switch 2020 until probably the holidays. Switch 2021 lead will probably shrink to about 250k after next week. From then on, I can see Switch 2021 being more competitive and perhaps gaining back some ground against Switch 2020.

Mario Golf in June and SS HD in July should definitely help. First console Mario Golf in almost 2 decades. I could see SS being a big system seller, potentially outselling the Wii version in its launch quarter.

Big E3 news could also help bump up Switch numbers and hopefully there will be some big titles this holiday. If Switch Pro & BOTW 2 launch this year, maybe 2021 could win (personally, I see Switch Pro & BOTW 2 launching simultaneously on March 25, 2022, the 12th week of the year, which is the same week we got ACNH & MH:R).

Either way, I am impressed at how well Switch 2021 has done against Switch 2020 so far. I don't think it's likely for 2021 to beat 2020, but I definitely have not ruled it out. We'll definitely know more in less than a month. Maybe if the Switch Pro launches next year, they could cut the price of the OG Switch and Switch Lite this September. I'm sure Pokemon will bring a big bump to Switch sales. Should sell more than any Switch game released last holiday.