| PAOerfulone said: Now that we're 16 weeks in, enough time has passed and we've got our first financial reports of the new year from Sony and Nintendo, it's time for my personal favorite part of this thread, PROJECTIONS!!! At this point in time during their respective years, the PS3, PS4, Xbox One, Xbox Series, and Nintendo Switch sold through these percentages of their sales: PlayStation 3 '14 - 37.72248446% PlayStation 4 '14 - 22.03296402% Xbox 360 '14 - 30.72062864% Xbox One '14 - 16.40180156% Nintendo Switch '20 - 23.87841713% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
I'm guessing that's the global percentage (16 weeks sales/total 2020 sales *100)
But looking at your Switch Japan projection I believe you have applied the global percentage to extrapolate the regional 2021 totals?
I think this would still result in your global projections being correct, but might mean your regional projections are skewed, eg from your tables in the first post the Switch in Japan 2021 is basically neck & neck with 2020, I believe to be more like 29% of yearly Japan sales. (US & Europe are probably a bit lower than 23.8% to compensate)
So for Japan if you keep to just the regional figures:
2020 at 16 week = 1,865,457
2020 total = 6,383,954
16 week percentage = 29.22%
2021 at 16 week = 1,869,354
2021 projection = 6,397,290
That said as I mentioned earlier in the thread, as you are comparing a 52 week year to a 53 week, Switch 2020 will basically be starting the year with 459k advantage (216k in Japan), to project for 2021 it might be better to compare the 16 weeks ending 24th April 2021 with the 16 weeks ending 25th April 2020. It won't make a big difference to the global projection (in fact for Switch it will lower it slightly as it sold more on that w/e 25th than it did w/e 4th Jan) but it will match the weeks up better.
So for Japan with 52 week comparison:
2020 at 16 week = 1,760,800
2020 total = 6,167,442
16 week percentage = 28.55%
2021 at 16 week = 1,869,354
2021 projection = 6,547,667
And for global 52 week comparison:
2020 at 16 week = 6,841,845
2020 total = 27,834,889
16 week percentage = 24.58%
2021 at 16 week = 7,364,563
2021 projection = 29,961,479
