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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: FINAL RESULTS!

javi741 said:

Predictions for a consoles, shipment and sell through

NSW: 23M sold, 25M Shipped: ~103 Million Shipped by end of 2021

PS5: 15M Sold, 16M Shipped: ~20 Million Shipped by end of 2021

Xbox SX: 9M Sold, 10M Shipped: ~13 Million Shipped by end of 2021

PS4: 4M Sold, 5M Shipped: ~121 Million Shipped by end of 2021

Xbox One: 1M Sold, 1.5M Shipped: ~50Million Shipped by end of 2021

For consoles at the end of their life I doubt the shipped figures will be that much higher than sold, at this point in their life shipped vs sold would normally be fairly steady, admitedly we are not in normal times (PS4 & XB1 did have supply issues due to lockdown demands) but Sony shipping 1m more PS4 than demand seems excessive.

Otherwise I concur with NSW, PS5 & XBS/X figures.



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Can't wait to see how the comparisons play out over the course of the year. I think it's pretty obvious that the Switch will sell less in 2021 than in 2020, but I think 2021 will be the second best year for Switch and I think it will still sell over 20 million. A comparison to 2019 might have been more interesting, but this is still cool. Curious to see how the PS & Xbox comparisons play out as well.



Week 1 Breakdown:

'21 PS4: Down in all regions
'21 XOne: Down in all regions
'21 PS5 - Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down overall
'21 XSXS - Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down overall.
'21 NSW - Up in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down in Japan; Down overall.

And here we go!!
Week 1 of the 2021 Hardware Comparison is officially in the books, and with this new format we can actually see how all the PlayStation and Xbox consoles are doing in comparison to the previous gen counterparts AND..... We're off to a bad start...

The '21 PS4/XOne got smacked by the '14 PS3/360. Now, there's a chance it could be just limited stock and that they'll constantly sell around these levels for most of the year, while the PS3 and 360 gradually decline as we progress. But I wouldn't bet money on that happening. If the traditional post holiday, post successor launch trends continue to hold, then this is going to be a very long year for the PS4 and Xbox One.

And their next gen counterparts aren't fairing much better. Even with severe shortages and stock issues, the '21 PS5/XSXS failed to match the '14 PS4/XOne numbers in Week 1. Keep in mind that in 2014, while the Xbox One didn't experience any notable stock issues that I can recall, the PS4 most certainly did. And it took months for Sony to catch up with demand, and with Covid this time around, it's going to take even longer for both Sony and Microsoft to catch up. But the fact that even with the shortages, shipments for the PS5 and XSXS are lower than they were for the PS4 and Xbox One, tells me that Sony and Microsoft were expecting both systems to perform worse post-launch than the PS4 and Xbox One did post launch. That doesn't exactly exude confidence if you ask me.

Now we have the Nintendo Switch, the only traditional Year over Year comparison on this thread. In Week 1, 2021 starts it just a little bit behind 2020 worldwide. The reason for this is because Japan is notably down compared to last year, while the US, Europe, and Rest of the World were slightly up. But the big disadvantage in Japan was too big for the other regions to overcome, hence why it was slightly down overall. That shouldn't be an issue for Week 2 with Famitsu reporting a slight increase in Japan this week, whereas last year it dropped considerably. So next week should be an overall win for the Switch in Week 2.



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PAOerfulone said:

Week 1 Breakdown:

'21 PS4: Down in all regions
'21 XOne: Down in all regions
'21 PS5 - Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down overall
'21 XSXS - Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down overall.
'21 NSW - Up in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down in Japan; Down overall.

And here we go!!
Week 1 of the 2021 Hardware Comparison is officially in the books, and with this new format we can actually see how all the PlayStation and Xbox consoles are doing in comparison to the previous gen counterparts AND..... We're off to a bad start...

The '21 PS4/XOne got smacked by the '14 PS3/360. Now, there's a chance it could be just limited stock and that they'll constantly sell around these levels for most of the year, while the PS3 and 360 gradually decline as we progress. But I wouldn't bet money on that happening. If the traditional post holiday, post successor launch trends continue to hold, then this is going to be a very long year for the PS4 and Xbox One.

And their next gen counterparts aren't fairing much better. Even with severe shortages and stock issues, the '21 PS5/XSXS failed to match the '14 PS4/XOne numbers in Week 1. Keep in mind that in 2014, while the Xbox One didn't experience any notable stock issues that I can recall, the PS4 most certainly did. And it took months for Sony to catch up with demand, and with Covid this time around, it's going to take even longer for both Sony and Microsoft to catch up. But the fact that even with the shortages, shipments for the PS5 and XSXS are lower than they were for the PS4 and Xbox One, tells me that Sony and Microsoft were expecting both systems to perform worse post-launch than the PS4 and Xbox One did post launch. That doesn't exactly exude confidence if you ask me.

Now we have the Nintendo Switch, the only traditional Year over Year comparison on this thread. In Week 1, 2021 starts it just a little bit behind 2020 worldwide. The reason for this is because Japan is notably down compared to last year, while the US, Europe, and Rest of the World were slightly up. But the big disadvantage in Japan was too big for the other regions to overcome, hence why it was slightly down overall. That shouldn't be an issue for Week 2 with Famitsu reporting a slight increase in Japan this week, whereas last year it dropped considerably. So next week should be an overall win for the Switch in Week 2.

I think the Japanese number for switch 2020 might be wrong. The switch has been up every week this year in japan so far, according to the famitsu threads.



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pikashoe said:
PAOerfulone said:

Week 1 Breakdown:

'21 PS4: Down in all regions
'21 XOne: Down in all regions
'21 PS5 - Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down overall
'21 XSXS - Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down overall.
'21 NSW - Up in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down in Japan; Down overall.

And here we go!!
Week 1 of the 2021 Hardware Comparison is officially in the books, and with this new format we can actually see how all the PlayStation and Xbox consoles are doing in comparison to the previous gen counterparts AND..... We're off to a bad start...

The '21 PS4/XOne got smacked by the '14 PS3/360. Now, there's a chance it could be just limited stock and that they'll constantly sell around these levels for most of the year, while the PS3 and 360 gradually decline as we progress. But I wouldn't bet money on that happening. If the traditional post holiday, post successor launch trends continue to hold, then this is going to be a very long year for the PS4 and Xbox One.

And their next gen counterparts aren't fairing much better. Even with severe shortages and stock issues, the '21 PS5/XSXS failed to match the '14 PS4/XOne numbers in Week 1. Keep in mind that in 2014, while the Xbox One didn't experience any notable stock issues that I can recall, the PS4 most certainly did. And it took months for Sony to catch up with demand, and with Covid this time around, it's going to take even longer for both Sony and Microsoft to catch up. But the fact that even with the shortages, shipments for the PS5 and XSXS are lower than they were for the PS4 and Xbox One, tells me that Sony and Microsoft were expecting both systems to perform worse post-launch than the PS4 and Xbox One did post launch. That doesn't exactly exude confidence if you ask me.

Now we have the Nintendo Switch, the only traditional Year over Year comparison on this thread. In Week 1, 2021 starts it just a little bit behind 2020 worldwide. The reason for this is because Japan is notably down compared to last year, while the US, Europe, and Rest of the World were slightly up. But the big disadvantage in Japan was too big for the other regions to overcome, hence why it was slightly down overall. That shouldn't be an issue for Week 2 with Famitsu reporting a slight increase in Japan this week, whereas last year it dropped considerably. So next week should be an overall win for the Switch in Week 2.

I think the Japanese number for switch 2020 might be wrong. The switch has been up every week this year in japan so far

Different method for reporting 53 weeks vs 52 weeks. Chartz used a 53 week year, but Famitsu used a 52 week year last year. Because of this, New Years is in 2020 for Chartz and in 2021 for Famitsu.



PDiddy said:
pikashoe said:

I think the Japanese number for switch 2020 might be wrong. The switch has been up every week this year in japan so far

Different method for reporting 53 weeks vs 52 weeks. Chartz used a 53 week year, but Famitsu used a 52 week year last year. Because of this, New Years is in 2020 for Chartz and in 2021 for Famitsu.

Ehh ok. That doesn't have anything to do with what I said. I said that the switch has been up every week this year according to the Famitsu threads, as in each week has been up compared to the corresponding week last year. Either a mistake has been made here or in the Famitsu threads.

Here's the chart from the Famitsu threads. Obviously the first week is week 53 here but the 2nd week is also up which would be week 1 here.

Week 2020 Weekly 2020 Cumulative 2021 Weekly 2021 Cumulative Difference Weekly Difference Cumulative
1 284.827 284.827 312.121 312.121 27.294 27.294
2 116.301 401.128 167.596 479.717 51.295 78.589
3 96.458 497.586 170.691 650.408 74.233 152.822


PDiddy said:
pikashoe said:

I think the Japanese number for switch 2020 might be wrong. The switch has been up every week this year in japan so far

Different method for reporting 53 weeks vs 52 weeks. Chartz used a 53 week year, but Famitsu used a 52 week year last year. Because of this, New Years is in 2020 for Chartz and in 2021 for Famitsu.

This will make the comparison difficult because we will be comparing a 53 week 2020 with a 52 week 2021. Week 1 in 2020 ended Jan 4, while this year it ended Jan 9.  This means that most holiday weeks will not match up year to year.

Not sure the best way to handle this as there will probably be wild swings in comparisons some weeks, but in the end we'll still have a full-year comparison either way.



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pikashoe said:
PDiddy said:

Different method for reporting 53 weeks vs 52 weeks. Chartz used a 53 week year, but Famitsu used a 52 week year last year. Because of this, New Years is in 2020 for Chartz and in 2021 for Famitsu.

Ehh ok. That doesn't have anything to do with what I said. I said that the switch has been up every week this year according to the Famitsu threads, as in each week has been up compared to the corresponding week last year. Either a mistake has been made here or in the Famitsu threads.

Here's the chart from the Famitsu threads. Obviously the first week is week 53 here but the 2nd week is also up which would be week 1 here.

Week2020 Weekly2021 WeeklyDifference Weekly
1284.827 (w/e 5th Jan)312.121 (w/e 3rd Jan)27.294
2116.301167.59651.295
396.458170.69174.233

That's the point, you have to check the date as they are comparing different time periods, Famistu week 1 is comparing w/e 5th Jan 2020 with w/e 3rd Jan 2021

VGC first of all ends the week on Saturday instead of Sunday, and the week ending 2nd Jan is counted as the last week of 2020.... thus VGC "week 1" is comparing w/e 4th Jan 2020 with w/e 9th Jan 2021

In this particular case the Famitsu comparison is comparing much closer weeks, only 2 days skewed instead of 5... this is inevitable as for charting purposes the weeks sales are essentially treated as a point in time (obviously in real life that's not the case, sales will vary by day/hour/minute)

It can't be perfect (in some transition years it might be Famitsu comparing weeks that can be skewed up to 6 days out of alignment) but if you compare more closely aligned VGC weeks the the Switch is up 2021 compared to 2020 here too.



Week 2 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.
PlayStation 5: Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and Rest of the World; Down overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.
Xbox Series: Up in the United States, Japan, and Rest of the World; Down in Europe; Down overall.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

Week 2 is officially in the books and we have a much better perspective this time around compared to last week. All 5 systems have shown a steady hold from the prior week. While the PlayStation and Xbox systems were still down Week over Week overall from their competitors, the gap was considerably closer than it was last week. In fact, if the Xbox Series had managed to close the gap just a little bit more in Europe, it would've been up Week over Week overall compared to the Xbox One's 2nd week in 2014!

Thanks in large part to the incredible hold in Japan from last week, the Nintendo Switch is up considerably Week over Week overall compared to last year.

It's evident that all systems are still very much dealing with stock issues even as vaccines are beginning to make the rounds and hopefully should be fully distributed to the public sooner rather than later. So, we could see the baselines for all 5 systems remain relatively high depending on how much Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are able to produce. Which could be beneficial in their respective comparisons as we truly get the year rolling.