Great increase year-on-year for the Switch.

So the last big sales week in Japan for a while has happened and the PS5 has had its first holiday season wasted there, jeez that's a really rough start. If someone had said PS5 would be under 300k by mid January most people probably would've laughed at them. The PS4 sold over 300k in its first week by comparison. Also this is a really good start for the Switch and a nice sign that if it is down this year it won't be by that much.

Looking at VGChartz numbers on how long it took to get to 300k

DS: Launch Week

PSP: Week 3

PS3: Week 6

Wii: Launch Week

3DS: Launch Week

PS Vita: Launch Week

Wii U: Launch Week

PS4: Launch Week

Switch: Launch Week

PS5: Not yet there at Week 8ish

The last few Weeks have averaged around 11K-12K, doing some simple math that would be another 2-3 weeks before it gets to 300K

Yeah it's looking like it'll take till the end of this month for it to hit 300k which is probably below even the most pessimistic predictions or projections. At this rate despite having a holiday season and over a dozen weeks the PS5 might fail to reach what the PS4 sold in its first couple weeks. More stock might turn things around so its first year might not be as bad as it seems it will be right now at least.

It would be something if it took all year for PS5 to surpass Switch’s first two weeks of 2021.

My prediction of 2021>2020 off to a good start. Of course I’m lowballing more Q1, but all according to plan!!!

W#: Guess — Sold — Difference

W1: 250k —— 312k — +62k
W2: 120k —— 168k — +48k
W3: 85k
W4: 75k
w5: 70k
w6: 75k
w7: 100k (SM3DW)
w8: 75k (BD2)
w9: 65k (SoS)
w10: 55k
w11: 45k
w12: 80k
w13: 180k (MHR)

Tot: 1275k

Also for those asking about if NSW will surpass 3ds 25mil or how far it will go????


3DS year 5+6 combined vs NSW year 5 (pls note that NSW is currently 227k behind aligned but that will be diminished in about 5-7weeks

Comparison Time!!!

W## - 3DSY5 - 3DSY6 - Combo - NSW21

W01: 200.1k - 122.9k - 323.0k - [312.1k]
W02: 70.1k — 51.2k — 121.3k - [167.6k]
W03: 50.4k — 31.4k — 81.8k
W04: 36.2k — 30.0k — 66.2k
W05: 33.0k — 24.9k — 57.9k
W06: 34.6k — 19.8k — 54.4K
W07: 53.3k — 21.1k — 74.4K
W08: 31.2k — 18.6k — 59.8k
W09: 29.9k — 20.0k — 49.9k
W10: 28.4k — 21.3k — 49.7k
W11: 26.5k — 20.5k — 47.0k
W12: 22.8k — 20.4k — 43.2k
W13: 25.7k — 25.3k — 51.0k


So far

444.3k: 3DS Y5+6
479.7k: NSW Y5

Bonus, I’m not taking seriously unless it does well but here y’all goooo

If NSW beats this one then it’s game over

NSW Year 5 vs 3DS year 5+6+7 o.O

W## - 3DSY5 - 3DSY6 - 3DSY6 —Combine—NSWY5

W01: 200.1k - 122.9k - 119.9k ———[443k] vs 312k

W02: 70.1k — 51.2k — 121.4k ——— [243k] vs 167k

W03: 50.4k — 31.4k — 46.4k————[128k]

W04: 36.2k — 30.0k — 34.3k———[100k]

W05: 33.0k — 24.9k — 33.9k—[92k]

W06: 34.6k — 19.8k — 31.3k—[86k]

W07: 53.3k — 21.1k — 31.6k—[106k]

W08: 31.2k — 18.6k — 27.4k—[77k]

W09: 29.9k — 20.0k — 24.7k—[75k]

W10: 28.4k — 21.3k — 27.1k—[77k]

W11: 26.5k — 20.5k — 24.5k—[72k]

W12: 22.8k — 20.4k — 56.5k—[100k]

W13: 25.7k — 25.3k — 51.3k—[102k]


Total 3DS: 686k vs. NSW 479k (207k difference)

I think Switch has a good chance to beat 2020. Momentum is up, there will be no AC but still a lot of big software and more packed. We should see more special edition Switch like the Mario one. I'm sure that if sales start to go down anyway they can just drop a revision or a price cut and voila.

I think your prediction of 2021 > 2020 will not have too much difficulty for Q1.  It's Q2 where things get interesting.  But then again Q2 had a lot of weeks with shortages, so maybe 2021 > 2020 for Q2.  Either way, Q2 should be a much closer comparison.