As I personally think that 2021 will actually be the hardware peak of the Switch,
I thought I would make a comparison between peak Switch & Nintendo DS
Famitsu Top 3 Hardware Results Japan:
-
Nintendo DS 2006 - 8.358.730
-
Nintendo DS 2007 - 7.167.372
-
Nintendo Switch 2020 - 5.956.943
First Quarter Comparison and 2021 updates
Q1 Results:
- Nintendo DS 2007 - 1.930.291
- Nintendo Switch 2020 - 1.700.352
- Nintendo DS 2006 - 1.212.781
- Nintendo Switch 2021 - 312.121*
Top Week Q1:
- Switch 2020, Week 12 - 392.576
- DS 2007, Week 1 - 344.953
- Switch 2021, Week 1 - 312.121
- DS 2006, Week 13 - 209.274
Biggest launches Q1:
- Animal Crossing: New Horizon (2020, Week 12) - 1.880.626
- Brain Age 2 (2006, Week 1) - 416.124
- Yoshi Island DS (2007, Week 10) - 254.523
Top Selling Titles from Q1(>1M):
- Animal Crossing: New Horizon ( Q1, 2020) - 1.880.626 / 6.472.485
- Brain Age 2 (Q1, 2006) - 416.124 / 5.082.322
- Weak English Adult DS Training (Q1, 2006) - 231.770 / 2.228.912
- Yoshi's Island DS (Q1, 2007) - 254.523 / 1.053.833
- Professor Layton and the Curious Village (Q1, 2007) - 119.816 / 1.002.561
Best Selling Evergreens(Top 3):
- Animal Crossing: Wild World (2006) - 1.177.606
- Brain Age (2006) - 844.209
- Dragon Quest Monsters (2007) - 672.559
- Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (2007) - 671.687
- Pokemon Sword / Shield (2020) - 554.390
- Mario Kart DS (2006) - 542.610
- New Super Mario Bros (2007) - 485.797
- Ring Fit Adventure (2020) - 249.488
- Momotaro Dentetsu (2021) - 190.427
- Minecraft (2020) - 185.900
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons (2021) - 94.382
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (2021) - 83.853
2006: 2.564.425
2007: 1.830.043
2020: 989.778
2021: 368.662
As we can see last years amazing 1.7 million were mostly down to New Horizon, Pokemon Sword / Shield sold much lower compared to 2006 for example where there was lower hardware sold. Also there weren't actually a lot of games launched during Q1 2020 to continue momentum as Pokemon Mystery Dungeon was the 2nd best selling launch of 2020 with 219K sales only.
For 2021 there is several factors, as to why I think Q1 is poised to actually be the Top Result:
- New Horizon, Momotaro & Ring Fit Adventure combined can reach 2 million physical+digital - meaning a higher evergreen result than 2007
- There is Monster Hunter Rise at the end of the Quarter that will ensure that momentum is maintained
- Bowser's Fury, Olive Town and Bravely Default 2 are all games that will continue momentum into the Monster Hunter Rise launch